Articles by Roger Entner
When I first became a wireless analyst, Japan was portrayed as an almost mythical wireless wonderland where everything was perfect and so much better than the unenlightened and backward countries not enjoying the mobile data and mobile handset miracles from the land of the rising sun. NTT DoCoMo was the most visible prophet of the Japanese way of wireless and it put its money mouth was. Now, Japan is again being portrayed to us as a land where wireless magic is reality. But is this really the case?
The recent burst in wireless plan revisions reminds us that change and expanded consumer choices have become defining characteristics of the U.S. mobile market place. As illustrated in the chart below, carriers are engaging in an intense back and forth of response and counter-response on everything from their shared data plan offerings to device upgrades to handset financing.
Right before CES--where we cared more about who crashed whose party and got kicked out rather than substance--Verizon and T-Mobile came to a significant spectrum deal. Under a series of agreements, Verizon will sell T-Mobile 23 700 MHz A Block licenses covering more than half of the U.S. population, including some of the largest markets in the United States: Los Angeles, San Francisco, Dallas, Atlanta and Detroit. As part of the agreement, T-Mobile and Verizon are re-aligning spectrum blocks in Northern California and Atlanta.
Sprint desperately needs a repositioning, in the same way that T-Mobile has shown is possible. As the last quarters have proven, just providing "unlimited for life" is not enough for consumers to switch to Sprint in significant numbers because the other operators offer packages with more data per month than most consumers use. Unless Sprint can provide more value than Verizon or AT&T, the customer losses will continue.
Dish, Sprint and T-Mobile hold very large amounts of high-band spectrum and have been using it to support lots of network and service innovations as a way to compete against AT&T and Verizon. So, why is there such a resurgence of commotion about the virtues of "low-band spectrum?"
After years of trying, Verizon Communications finally came to an agreement with Vodafone about resolving their joint-venture. Both will now focus on integrating their wireless and wireline assets. By going separate ways both companies try reach the same destination.
There is currently series of proposals going around in Washington around the value of high-frequency spectrum versus low-frequency spectrum. The discussion might be academically interesting, but are divorced from the real world. When we look at the text-book properties of spectrum it is clear that lower frequency spectrum has ideal propagation characteristics.
In the second quarter of 2013, the industry grew by 335,000 subscribers, which is the lowest subscriber-add number this millennium. A significant reason for the low growth is that approximately 1 million Lifeline connections had to be disconnected because the carriers were unable to verify eligibility. The industry make-up also changed considerably in Q2.
T-Mobile made three announcements today: 157 million LTE population coverage, the new Jump device program and family plans for non-contract customers. The general expectation was that T-Mobile would announce the 100 million LTE population coverage milestone by mid-year 2013. Instead, T-Mobile topped that by announcing 157 million population coverage, which came as a welcome surprise and shows how T-Mobile has executed over the last year.
A raging debate over the future of the U.S. wireless industry has taken center stage in Washington, and attracted the attention of the Europeans whose own wireless industry is imploding. The outcome of the debate will directly impact the U.S. economy, shape U.S. broadband technology and consumer trends for decades and could signal the U.S. government wants to play a much larger role in the marketplace.