3G

Nokia's vision: Smart devices that learn from consumer usage

Paul Rasmussen — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 12:53:20 -0500

With hardly any mention of technology or what future handsets might look like, Nokia has presented a short video of how it sees the world of mobile communications evolving over the next five years.

The key aspect of this vision is that all of the company's devices will be connected to the ‘Nokia cloud' that will then allow apps to learn from how consumers use these services and adapt accordingly. There is also a strong emphasis on synchronisation at almost every level that is far removed from the voice and text oriented world of today.

However, other companies have painted similar, albeit less ambitious, images of this sort of scenario and little would seem to have got much beyond the ‘slideware' stage. Nokia's take on the mid-term future would also appear to have made the assumption that it has become the dominant player in mobile cloud services - something other handset vendors and global operators might not accept willingly.

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Mobile broadband to overtake fixed-line internet connections in the UK in 2011

Paul Rasmussen — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 11:17:28 -0500

Mobile broadband connections will exceed fixed-line broadband connections in 2011, according to a report to be released by mobileSquared. By 2011 the number of active 3G devices in the UK will be 36.3 million, as well as 6.4 million dongles/embedded devices, taking the total number of mobile broadband connections to 42.7 million versus expected broadband internet users of 42.5 million.

While the analyst house predicts internet usage over the mobile phone will remain below traditional fixed-line usage during the forecast period of 2009-2014, the company's research has revealed that between one per cent and 10 per cent of a company's internet traffic is already being generated from a mobile device.

"Mobile will become the primary access point for brands and businesses communicating with its consumers within two years," said Nick Lane, chief analyst at mobileSquared, and author of the report. "Mobile is always on, and the average user carries their device for an average of 16 hours a day. So if a company or brand is not already considering how to use mobile, then they need to because their customers are." Article

Only one bidder for 4th French 3G licence

Paul Rasmussen — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 12:09:21 -0400

The proposed sale of the fourth French 3G licence has descended into near farce as those supposedly keen to bid have walked away leaving the ISP Illiad as the only interested party. The deadline for applications is the 29^th October, although observers believe the likelihood of a fresh candidate appearing is remote at this stage.

Numericable and Virgin Mobile France, which previously said they were discussing options to jointly bid for the licence, have now jointly decided that unfavourable regulations and uncertainty surrounding the overall Capex requirements had forced them to reject any idea of bidding. This move follows decisions by Egypt's Orascom Telecom, the French investment company Bollore and the local alternative telecoms operator Kertel to also abandoned plans.

Speaking on behalf of Virgin Mobile, Numericable CEO, Pierre Danon, said that the two firms had spent a considerable amount of time exploring the opportunity provided and in talking to the three incumbent cellcos, but had decided that "given the conditions on the licence, we think it will be very difficult for the holder of the fourth licence."

Under the terms of the licence award, the successful bidder is required to build a network to cover 25 per cent of the French population before it can reach a roaming agreement with other operators. Danon claimed that the uncertainty over the timeframe and costs related to hitting this target made it too risky to proceed. "The newcomer will need some 1,000 antennas to reach that threshold. It would have to install the antennas at new locations or on the sites of existing operators, effectively increasing the risk and costs associated with the project. The business case for the project could entirely fall apart, and the level of uncertainty is very high."

The lack of interest in this 3G licence will potentially embarrass the French government, together with the three existing 3G operators who have each complained bitterly about the low-cost of entry for this fourth operator.

However, the frequencies that make up the fourth 3G licence represent only about a third of the frequencies that the three established operators were allocated with their licences back in 2001 and 2002. Two more sets of frequencies will be auctioned in a second phase and will be open to all parties, including the three existing network operators.

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Total Telecom

French operators trigger legal action over fourth 3G licence

Paul Rasmussen — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 12:15:41 -0400

Having complained loudly from the sidelines, Bouygues Telecom has become the first French mobile operator to step forward and issue a legal challenge to how the country's fourth 3G licence is being sold. The company has filed complaints just days before the 29^th October deadline for the filing of licence applications with the national regulator Arcep.

A Bouygues Telecom spokesman stated: "We have filed two complaints to contest the legality of the decree which fixed the price and the decree which launched the tender offer for the licence under the conditions set by Arcep."

Vivendi, the major shareholder in SFR, and France Telecom Orange have both stated their intentions to submit separate complaints to the European Commission about the €240 million price being asked for the 3G mobile licence.

The issue revolves around the current asking price of €240 million against the €619 million that the three 3G operators originally paid for their licences, with the complaint that the French government would effectively be providing state aid to the fourth operator relative to the other three licence holders.

So far, the ISP Iliad is the only confirmed candidate, although other late bids are expected.

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Total Telecom

VOIP challenges mobile, says Fitch

Paul Rasmussen — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 12:08:37 -0400

VOIP call costs are starting to undercut mobile phone operators' tariffs, particularly on roaming and international calls, according to a recent Fitch Ratings report. The study said that mobile VOIP phone calls are between 10 and 20 times less than a 3G mobile phone call.

According to Fitch, mobile VOIP is unlikely to achieve mass market take up for some time. However, the report adds: 'As network quality improves, selective usage of mobile VoIP could start to impact operators' revenue from higher tariff services like international calls and voice roaming. Article

Mobile VoIP in Europe unlikely to achieve mass market soon

Paul Rasmussen — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 12:59:16 -0400

Fitch Ratings says today that mobile VoIP in the European telecoms industry is unlikely to achieve mass market take up for some time. However, as network quality improves, selective usage of mobile VoIP could start to impact operators' revenue from higher tariff services like international calls and voice roaming.

In similarity to fixed telephony, mobile VoIP creates a technology arbitrage opportunity between voice and data. Given the current pricing of mobile data packages, Fitch estimates the cost per minute of a mobile VoIP call using a 3G network is around 10-20 times cheaper than the cost of a normal mobile phone call. (Fitch compared the cost of a normal mobile call, based on the average price of minutes in a standard large minutes-inclusive bundle, with the estimated cost of a mobile VoIP call based on the average per unit price of a typical mobile data tariff.) Article

UK ripe for mobile network consolidation – page 2

Keith Mallinson — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 17:13:32 -0400

Significant problems remain with two issues: control and branding. With partners' desire for equality, there is by definition no controlling shareholder. In absence of this, the JV agreement will stipulate, among other things, dividend policy with 90 percent to be distributed to shareholders. That will avoid the pickle that Vodafone is in with no cash flow from its 45 percent stake in Verizon Wireless in the U.S., but it is a recipe for management gridlock. Instead, agility is required. It is difficult to predict what the future holds and how the interests of the shareholders might diverge. Deferring the decision for 18 months on whether or not and how to consolidate brands reveals the JV is already having difficulties with the weightiest of decisions.

The competition authorities in the UK and Europe might attach some strings or at least undertake a thorough review prior to approving the JV. There is so much infrastructure sharing in the UK that competition might be affected. T-Mobile shares its 3G network with 3UK. Orange announced RAN sharing with Vodafone, although it seems only mast sharing has occurred. Instead, Vodafone and O2 are sharing infrastructure. These arrangements, including the provisions for folding them up, are the kinds of things the antitrust authorities will likely review. If the JV is allowed, it would be difficult to justify denying H3G, with around 7.5 percent market share, the right to be acquired by Vodafone or O2. This, however, would limit the market to just three network-based competitors.

The proposed new JV stirs memories of the sorry tale when FT and DT combined their international fixed service offerings to corporate customers in the mid 1990s. That old JV was named GlobalOne. DT and FT even arranged cross-shareholdings to consummate its partnership. It was actually a bit more complicated because Sprint also joined with a $3 billion investment by FT and DT. Within five years from start to finish the failed partnership was dismantled. Thankfully the strategic logic is much better this time in UK mobile.

The new mobile JV's integration will be a walk in the park in comparison to T-Mobile's rumoured desire to acquire Sprint in the US. Sprint is still floundering with the legacy of disparate mobile network technologies, brands, marketing strategies and organizational clashes with its acquisition of Nextel in 2005. Its diversification into WiMAX with Clearwire makes matters worse. Sprint Nextel is suffering massive customer losses while market leaders Verizon and AT&T are still enjoying significant additions. With its severely depressed stock price and market capitalization at only around $11 billion Sprint Nextel might go for a song; but there's no quick or easy fix, with or without T-Mobile USA.

Keith Mallinson is a leading industry expert, analyst and consultant. Solving business problems in wireless and mobile communications, he founded consulting firm WiseHarbor in 2007.

Femtocells: NSN and China Mobile demo TD-LTE femto, but questions remain

Paul Rasmussen — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 10:37:50 -0400

While claiming the demonstration was a world first, the public display by Nokia Siemens Networks (NSN) and China Mobile of a TD-LTE femtocell might indicate that the giant Chinese operator is keen to implement LTE in place of the government-imposed 3G standard, TD-SCDMA.

But the intent behind the femtocell demonstration was to prove the indoor penetration of TD-LTE given, according to China Mobile, that the majority of mobile broadband capacity will be consumed inside homes and offices. "TD-LTE femtocells can fully leverage the advantages of TDD frequencies, provide a fast and flexible indoor coverage solution and effectively manage network capacity and cost," said Huang Xiaoqing, general manager of the China Mobile Research Institute.

This early demonstration of a TD-LTE femtocell has given rise to speculation that China Mobile will launch the device as soon as it can go commercially live with LTE to provide hot spot coverage and much improved indoor penetration.

NSN stated that the experimental TD-LTE femtocell was able to deliver speeds higher than were possible using xDSL technology, and indicated, according to Stephan Scholz, CTO at NSN, the company's "innovative research leadership in LTE."

However, this effort to prove the capabilities of TD-LTE has been seen by business commentators as an attempt to encourage wider industry support for the TDD version of LTE. It would appear increasingly likely that China Mobile will be the only TD-LTE operator and will face the considerable challenge of creating a viable eco-system for device vendors to develop handsets based upon this standard.

The long-delayed deployment of China's homegrown TD-SCDMA 3G technology has raised doubts over its future success, not helped by the disappointing subscriber numbers recently announced by China Mobile. The company said that, at the end of August, its 3G subscriber base stood at 1.33 million, an increase of 239,000 on the previous month's tally.

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Press release

3 Billion 3G Mobile Broadband Users in 5 Years

Paul Rasmussen — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 12:48:45 -0400

At the recent Broadband World Forum in Paris, Ericsson CEO, Hans Vestberg, made some predictions regarding the take up of 3G Mobile Broadband. He claims there will be over three billion 3G mobile broadband subscribers worldwide in the next five years. Currently there are over 4 billion 3G mobile users worldwide and by 2014 there will be 7 billion 3G mobile users.

He predicted how the telecoms industry is evolving and none more so in mobile broadband. He made a point of saying that the numbers above for mobile broadband is likely to include some users who have more than one SIM e.g. mobile and mobile broadband. He sees mobile broadband opportunities over the next five years as substantial. Article

French president gets involved with fourth 3G licence

Paul Rasmussen — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 13:39:42 -0400

The level of political lobbying surrounding the granting of the fourth and final 3G licence has been revealed following reports that the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, has expressed his reservations.

The three existing 3G operators are believed to be at the centre of these manoeuvrings, claiming that the applicant for the fourth licence will only be asked to pay €240 million, a fraction of the €619 million they each paid in 2001.

However, the involvement of the president of France in this argument significantly increases the pressure on the telecoms regulator to review the condition of the 3G tender. According to inside sources, Sarkozy was said to be sceptical on the choice of the fourth 3G operator, suggesting that the "lowest price was not necessarily the best one."

The French ISP Illiad is expected to be the most likely successful bidder, but, following Sarkozy's remarks, the value of the company's shares fell by over two per cent in a rising market. Other bidders interested in the fourth licence are expected to include a joint proposal from Numericable and Virgin Mobile, but observers remain doubtful of this combined bid making progress.

Orange and SFR have already threatened to challenge the bid price for this fourth 3G licence before the European Union competition authorities, while Bouygues Telecom said it too was considering action.

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