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Research and Markets: 2Q10 Belgium Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2014: Belgium will have 13.2 Million Mobile Subscriber

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Posted May 10, 2010

DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/c77ea7/2q10_belgium_mobil) has announced the addition of IE Market Research Corp.'s new report "2Q10 Belgium Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2014: Belgium will have 13.2 Million Mobile Subscribers in 2014 with Proximus Taking Market Share of 42%" to their offering.

Mobile Operator Forecast on Belgium provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Belgian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2011. Operators covered for Belgium include: Proximus (Belgacom), Mobistar, and Base. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the worlds population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary:

Subscriber growth is slowing down in Belgium's wireless market

  • +3.8% industry average subscriber growth in 4Q.2009
  • The industry average subscriber growth (YoY) was 3.8% in 4Q.2009, down from 7.6% in 4Q.2009. The number of total mobile subscribers in Belgium reached 11.77 million in 4Q.2009 and the wireless penetration rate increased to 109%.
  • Base is still the leader in subscriber growth in Belgium with a 10.5% growth rate in 4Q.2009.
  • Subscriber growth rates (YoY) at Proximus (Belgacom) and Mobistar were 2.9% and 0.9% respectively in 4Q.2009.

Negative ARPU growth continues at Proximus and Mobistar

  • -3.3% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 4Q.2009
  • The industry average ARPU growth was at -3.3% (YoY) in 4Q.2009, up from -9.7% in 4Q.2008.
  • Proximus's ARPU growth was -3.6% (YoY) in 4Q.2009, up from -8.8% in 4Q.2008.
  • Mobistar's ARPU growth increased to -2.7% (YoY) in 4Q.2009, from -6.2% in 4Q.2008.
  • Base's ARPU remained at 16 in 4Q.2009, which is the same as in 4Q.2008.

Minutes of Use per Subscriber in Belgium are decreasing

  • -3.2% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 4Q.2009
  • The industry average MOU/Sub (Minutes of Use per Subscriber) was 149 minutes per month in 4Q.2009, down -3.2% from 154 minutes in 4Q.2008.
  • Proximus continues to lead Belgium's operators with its MOU/Sub of 169 minutes per month in 4Q.2009.
  • Bases MOU/Sub was 126 minutes in 4Q.2009 (up +3.3% from 122 minutes in 4Q.2008)

Positive EBITDA growth at Mobistar and Base in the latest quarter

  • +1.2% industry average EBITDA growth in 4Q.2009
  • The operator-wide average EBITDA growth (YoY) was 1.2% in 4Q.2009, down from 7.9% in 4Q.2008.
  • Mobistar's EBITDA growth (YoY) was strong in 4Q.2009 at 3.5%, up from 2.9% in 4Q.2008.
  • Base's EBITDA growth (YoY) was also positive at 4.9% in 4Q.2009, down from 22.0% in 4Q.2008.
  • On the other hand, Proximus's EBITDA growth (YoY) remained negative in 4Q.2009 at -1.4% (significantly down from 7.7% in 4Q.2008).

So what is IEMRs Forecast?

Total wireless subscriber accounts in Belgium to reach 13.2 million in 2014

  • We forecast that total wireless subscribers in Belgium will increase from 11.7 million in 2009 to 13.2 million in 2014.
  • Proximus will continue to be the largest mobile operator in Belgium over the next five years; we expect that Proximus's subscriber base will increase from 5.0 million in 2009 to about 5.6 million in 2014.
  • Mobistar will be the second largest mobile operator with 3.8 million subscriber accounts in 2014. Base will be the third with 3.4 million subscribers in 2014, according to our model.

Base will see its subscriber market share increase over the next five years

  • We expect that Base's subscriber market share will increase from 25.2% in 2009 to about 26% in 2014.
  • On the other hand, we forecast that market shares at Proximus and Mobistar will be declining slightly over the next several years to reach approximately 42.1% and 28.7% respectively by the end of 2014.

ARPUs in Belgium to stabilize from 2010 to 2014

  • We expect that the declining trend in ARPUs will stop in Belgium's wireless market. We forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU will remain in the range of 25 - 27 over the forecast period, 2009 - 2014.
  • Among the three major operators, Proximus and Mobistar will continue to have significantly higher ARPUs than Base. Our model predicts that monthly ARPUs at Proximus, Mobistar and Base will be approximately 30, 27, and 16 in 2014.

Proximus will continue to have higher EBITDA margins than Mobistar and Base

  • The largest operator, Proximus, will continue to enjoy a higher level of profitability than Mobistar and Base. We expect that its EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/service revenue) will be stable at about 51% over the next five years.
  • Our model forecasts that EBITDA margins at Mobistar and Base will be approximately 45% and 49% respectively in 2014.

Companies Mentioned:

  • Proximus (Belgacom)
  • Mobistar
  • Base

For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/c77ea7/2q10_belgium_mobil



CONTACT:

Research and Markets
Laura Wood, Senior Manager,
press@researchandmarkets.com
U.S. Fax: 646-607-1907
Fax (outside U.S.): +353-1-481-1716

KEYWORDS:   United States  Belgium  Europe  North America  New York

INDUSTRY KEYWORDS:   Technology  Mobile/Wireless

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