Prediction 5: Palm will not survive the OS wars - 2009 Predictions

If 2008 will be remembered in part by the emergence of Android, Google's open-source platform, into the operating system realm, 2009 will go down as the year the OS wars claimed their first victim, and we predict it will be Palm. Palm plans on introducing its new OS, Nova [1], at the Consumer Electronics Show, hoping to spark a lot of attention. It's a gamble that won't pay off for a company with a declining product portfolio and weak profits [2]. Although Palm recently secured an $100 million investment from Elevation Partners, [3] we don't think that will be enough to keep the firm in business in the long-term.

In the OS wars to come, every platform will have to have strong backers. Android has all of the members of the Open Handset Alliance, including LG, Samsung and Sony Ericsson. Research In Motion's BlackBerry OS can count on enterprise users around the world to keep it strong. Symbian has the exclusive backing of industry giant Nokia and Apple's proprietary software for the iPhone 3G will continue to garner attention, investment and development. This leaves Palm out in the cold, with no room for error. The pressure will be too much, Nova will arrive too late and Palm will fold as a viable platform.