Do consumers understand Android?

SAN DIEGO--Google's Android mobile operating system dominated headlines here at an otherwise uneventful CTIA Wireless IT and Entertainment 2009. In fact, the week's biggest news broke the day prior to the conference's official kickoff, when Verizon Wireless [1] announced a new partnership with Google that signals a series of Android handsets and applications, a game-changing collaboration highlighted by the operator's  support for the controversial Google Voice application. Android continued building momentum as the week unfolded--first, Motorola [2] announced a series of third-party applications tied to its forthcoming Android smartphones, including software from partners Amazon MP3, Barnes & Noble, Comcast and MySpace. A day later, Sprint [3] confirmed it will launch Samsung's latest Android smartphone, the Moment. In addition, The Wall Street Journal reported AT&T [4] is poised to introduce an Android device manufactured by Dell, due to hit stores early next year.

With so many manufacturers and operators embracing Android, research firm Gartner forecasts the OS will overtake Apple's iPhone in worldwide market share by 2012. Gartner vice president and distinguished analyst Ken Dulaney anticipates Android will claim 14.5 percent of OS market share in three years, up from 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2009 and second only to Symbian, which Dulaney believes will represent 39 percent of the market in 2012. "Android rises to number two simply because, unlike Apple, they license their OS to multiple OEMs," Dulaney told AppleInsider [5]. "They have the number two OEM, Samsung, and strong players like LG, Motorola, HTC and now Dell. There are others in the works. Apple will still likely have the top of mind in the marketplace with probably the most purely defined consumer product." Android's expected gains will come at the expense of Research In Motion's BlackBerry platform--Dulaney believes RIM's market share will drop 7.4 percent to 12.5 percent by 2012.

It's safe to say the wireless industry is coming around to Android's promise. Subscribers are a different story. "Consumers don't get what Android is or why they should care about it," said Best Buy Mobile VP Scott Moore during a developer-focused CTIA IT panel Wednesday. "They get the sense it's getting bigger and better, but they're not sure why." Moore's perspective underscores Dulaney's point about the iPhone--Apple's marketing consistently and ingeniously hammers home the device's value proposition. Android is a blank slate by design, but until handset makers, operators and developers start clearly differentiating what makes the platform powerful, consumers are going to remain nonplussed. 

And while industry events like CTIA are all about spotlighting the future of the mobile industry, it's vital to remember that subscribers are living in a present where feature phones still dominate and smartphones represent the unknown. "It's still very early for regular people," Moore said. "They know there's something better out there, and they know they want it. But most people would rather go to the dentist than buy a new mobile phone. It's a nightmare for them." -Jason [6]