US mobile ad revenues to reach $4.2bn in 2015, 70% from search

Newly released forecasts by technology and media specialist Coda Research Consultancy [1] show that mobile broadband search and display ad revenues in the US will grow to US$4.2bn in 2015, up from US$1bn in 2010.

Coda’s research into the US mobile broadband market also shows that whilst SMS will make up just over half of all mobile ad revenues in 2010, these will fall to around 3% in 2015. Revenues from search will rise to 70% of all mobile ad revenues in 2015, which is up from a third of mobile ad revenues in 2010. Of this 70%, a third will be derived from local search.

In terms of carrier revenues, the research also shows that non-SMS data revenues will increase by a CAGR of 19% over 2009, to reach $67bn in 2015, whilst SMS data revenues will increase by a much lower CAGR of 11%, to reach $36bn.

Among other findings is that users accessing video via mobile phones will total 74m in 2015, generating $530m in subscriptions, and $420m in advertising. People streaming and downloading music to their phones will increase to 41m in 2015, however music purchases will fall to $660m. Usage of mobile phones for banking, including micro-payments, will also grow at a CAGR of 40%, to reach 79m in 2015.

According to Steve Smith, founder of Coda, “The amount of data generated by mobile broadband users is already significantly impacting carriers, and it will get worse. Our view is that the debate around net neutrality simply doesn’t apply to mobile broadband. With the top 3% of smartphone users consuming 40% of mobile bandwidth in the US, network access clearly needs to be managed so that other customers’ usage is not impacted.

“Ads around video content will supplement subscriptions hugely, but a variety of issues related to mobile ads more generally need to be resolved first. These include the ability to measure page impressions, unique users, click-through rates, time-viewed, and resulting purchases, to name just a few. Getting these measurements in place will take time and will hinder advertisers embracing mobile advertising.

“On the mobile banking front, using mobile phones for micro-payments, say to pay for coffee and the like, represents a new revenue stream and a way for enhancing customer relationships and brand loyalty. The smartphone is the catalyst for micro-payment take-up, and we will see increasing numbers of trials and eventual roll outs taking place.”

These are a selection of findings from Coda’s research into US mobile internet. Topics analysed and forecast include video, mobile music, ads, device users and traffic, carrier revenues, social networking, location based services, operating systems, netbooks and smartbooks. More information can be found at www.codarc.co.uk [1].