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Analyst: AT&T's iPhone exclusivity likely to end next year

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AT&T Mobility's exclusive rights to sell Apple's iPhone in the United States has been the subject of intense speculation and scrutiny, most recently from the FCC. However, according to Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, within a year all that noise will be largely irrelevant. According to Munster, Apple is slowly transitioning to a model in which multiple carriers sell the iPhone in each country.

"We expect Apple to add new iPhone carriers in the U.S. within the next year (likely with a new product launch next summer," Munster wrote in a research note as part of an examination of the 14 "unanswered questions" about Apple. "By way of example, for various reasons the company moved from an exclusive relationship with French wireless carrier Orange to a multi-carrier model. In France, the company now enjoys dramatically higher market share (in the 40 percent range vs. about 15 percent in ROW) than in countries with exclusive carrier agreements (such as AT&T in the U.S. where the iPhone has market share in the mid-teens)."

Indeed, in the wake of last week's blockbuster deal with China Unicom to bring the iPhone to China, Apple confirmed that the deal was not an exclusive one. Apple declined to discuss what other carriers it was in talks with. Piper Jaffray said that Apple may sell more than 3 million iPhone units in China next year.

Apple continues to maintain that its relationship with AT&T is a healthy one. However, Verizon Wireless has been rumored to be a possible new carrier partner once AT&T's exclusivity runs out.

The FCC has said it will research exclusive handset deals between carriers and device manufacturers, like the contract between AT&T and Apple for the iPhone, to consider the competitive ramifications, including effects on rural wireless customers unable to access the handsets.

For more:
- see this All Things D blog post
- see this Dow Jones Newswires article
- see this Bloomberg article
- see this WSJ article (sub. req.)

Related Articles:
Bouygues Telecom maps out French iPhone offer
Loss of iPhone exclusivity to cost Orange France 200 million euros
Report: Carriers aren't cashing in on iPhone hype
China Unicom strikes deal for iPhone
AT&T activates 2.4M iPhones in Q2
Analysts: iPhone sales to cut into AT&T's margins        

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YEA!!!
Love iPhone, not ATT. How about Verizon? Had them for years, would like to go back.

i like my rate plan with sprint more than i like the iphone.

i like the iphone , but the iphone does me no good if it requires me to pay more for service.

So next year three'll be 2 iphone models, one GSM(TDMA) for ATT and another CDMA for Verizon? I agree with the previous poster. I am not going to pay 29.99 extra for a data plan.

Come on Verizon & Apple, get on with it and get the iPhone released for us!!!

I wish they would go to Sprint! Had verizon for a couple years, it angered me so much to find out that the features I expected to be able to use on my phone were disabled because of verizon trying to nickel and dime people. GPs disabled along with bluetooth even though it is built in. And the high prices are not great either. sprint works great here in OC and is cheaper. But I do think that Apple has the muscle to force Verizon to sell the phone without stuff disabled. Because then a lot of apps would not work. Especially the GPS, since verizon forces people to get the VZnavigator

Look people, do us all a favor and grab a slice of reality and back off the wireless carrier flame wars. ALL wireless carriers suck. They all suck in different ways, but they all suck. For those that think the phone would be good on another network fine, but you're going to get screwed somehow.

I've been on several networks and they all have their weaknesses. Verizon has good coverage, but they are more expensive and nickel and dime you on everything. They purposely cripple phone capabilities in order to force you to use their paid services. (See disabling bluetooth transfering of files like pictures to force you use their $0.25 picture messaging feature.) ATT has good coverage, but their data network does not seem up to speed to support the amount of data iphone users demand. That said they offer you roll over minutes which makes their phone plans WAAAAAY cheaper than Verizon because most people can get buy on a cheaper plan. The other networks (T-Mobile, Sprint, etc.) they offer more minutes for fewer dollars, but their coverage areas are spotty and/or their data networks are inferior.

For those who complain about the iphone itself or the data plan...the phone IS NOT meant for you. The iphone is a smartphone...the BEST smartphone. Anyone who is in the market for a smartphone is going to pay the higher price for the data connection. They come with the phone; there's no choice for similar phones from Blackberry, Google, Palm, ect.

Regarding the topic of the article and multiple carriers; it couldn't hurt. Spreading users over multiple networks will likely help ATT's data network. ATT will undoubtedly loose some customers, but they haven't stepped up and provided iphone users with a complete experience (I'm looking at you multimedia messaging, tethering, and high costs for text messages.)

FurnacE and Logic out.

TB, I believe Apple is in the dominant position over Verizon. Even if Apple lets Verizon cripple features, I don't see any way this happens, but lets say it does. That puts ATT in a better position. Direct competition and user expectations will force Verizon's hand or they will pay the price in subcribership.

the iPhone v1 was built to last... I bought it the very first month it came out and it still feels like new. I will not be buying a new phone until Apple supplies with a carrier other than AT&T, and costs LESS than what I am paying now.

Me and my wife are in the same boat. We switched to AT&T because of the iPhone. My wife absolutely had to have one. AT&T as a cell phone service is complete garbage in comparison to the signal quality we received with Verizon. I definitely want to go back.

I don’t get it,.. Why should I go to buy the I-phone on CDMA site (Sprint, Verizon) ,if I have the choice to buy much more superior Palm Pre ??? Further more that the Sprint Unlimited plan is significantly cheaper ??

I'm hoping that when it really happens it doesn't apply to just one sole carrier for X-amount of years! It should be for all carriers and allow all customers to pick and choose the type of features they use the most or prefer.

We just have to wait and see when the announcement will be made and when the effective (full operation) dates are.

I like the rate of Sprint, also I like Palm Pre over IPhone, so I dont really care about IPhone,
However, verizon is expensive and I hope IPhone and Verizon dont kill all other providers. As verizon is not great with customer service

People, next year Verizon Wirless will bring their LTE network online. This is the 4G Internet standard that is being adopted all over the world and thus, it might actually make sense for Verizon Wireless to adopt an iPhone. So a Verizon Wireless branded might be configured CDMA/LTE.

They have announced it would be 3Q2010, but there are rumors that they might push forward the launch to 1Q2010. If this announcement on the iPhone is for 2Q2010, don't be too surprised if Verizon's first LTE smartphone (and LTE is a data network in the US at this time) is the iPhone "V".

I was watching a CNBC analysis on the iPhone and their tech guy made a Hummer analogy, the iPhone is powerful but AT&T's network can't handle the more advanced features on the phone. LTE brings a more robust wireless platform that supposedly would allow customers to download video and all the good stuff that you can do on the wired Internet but all US 3G carriers would demand that you mortgage away your first-born if you use it.

My understanding that apart from the "locking features" thing, Verizon had a problem with Apple with them not being able to provide technical support troubleshooting on the phone at all, because it was proprietary or something. Research in Motion (the manufacturer of Blackberry) does have certain proprietary areas that they their own techs deal with, but I think Apple is stricter than that.

Apple would bring a HUUUGE carrot to the table. The iPhone is a superior piece of engineering and they know it. If not, check how Verizon actually has a question on the iPhone to their customers when they inquire why their customers leave. They would also mind expanding their market share. AT&T gives you 76 million or so as the maximum amount of possible customers for the iPhone. Adding Verizon would more than double the universe of possible iPhone customers.

Sprint and T-Mobile could probably be laggards. T-Mobile barely rolled out its 3G network and people can unlock their iPhones to work on T-Mobile.

Sprint might be possible as an alternative partner for the iPhone, but they chose WiMax as their standard and they are suffering what Verizon and themselves are suffering with their 3G (CDMA-2000) standard, as it is not widespread and you have limited options for using your cellphone while abroad.

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