Is the Future Clear?

The whole article seemed well written and subjective until the comment about not wanting that type of internet. It makes you seem a bit old and out of touch, which discredits you being an authority on cutting edge technology. I agree that Clearwire's path to success is long and complicated, but I don't agree with the thought that consumers wouldn't want a better internet connection available on their laptops or cell phones.

RE: "...I want a smarter, easier-to-use Internet that connects me to sites in the background and presents only the information I want in an easy-to-view format. ..."

No way. I rather have desktop experience. I don't need another contrived UI lite. Otherwise well written. If the funding is inadequate (I'll defer to Andy's word for it), I suspect the current backers Intel, Google and others have deep enough pockets to make it a viable option in the mix.

In the final analysis, it is ALL in the Input and Output that's what the consumers care about..

Mark and Ravi, it would be interesting to find out what others think--let me be clear about the smarter Internet I am talking about--yes you can still browse to your hearts content, but take a look at Worldmate live (not a client) you download their application, tie it into Outlook and then as you plan your trip it sets up your travel, changes time zones if need be, and organizes it. It ALSO will go check on your flights, automatically or your can query it with a single push of a button, and you get all of the latest information including any delays, gate changes, or flight delays, you also get the weather for where you are traveling, time clocks, world currancy changer etc ALL without ever touching a browswer, this is the type of SMART Internet access I am talking about, and by the way, after using this product for a few weeks I am not using in on my desktop and letting it update my Outlook.
If that is old fashioned then I guess I am.
Andy

Still not sure CLEAR has the right Spectrum (2.5Ghz)for a robust WiMAX service that will hold up under Verizon Wireless new 700Mhz LTE networks in the 2012 time frame.
Has anyone tried working with the 2.5Ghz WiMAX network in a heavily canopied market?
It would not suprise me if AT&T opted to focus on their 3G upgrades gearing them primarily for the best voice service and shifted its Data/Video/VoiceIP Traffic to a WiMAX based 700Mhz and or AWS 1 services with dual mode 700MHZ WiMAX and GSM HSPA Handsets. By Offloading Video and Audio to this new WiMAX 700Mhz 4G network and improving their voice services it allows AT&T to position themselves to draw first data customers and then voice customers from VZW.
VZW will be forced, via agreements to tightly manage (and restrict) their LTE network services as demands for big video pipe's grow.

jim

I never believe Sprint can do anything good!

So I beleive it will fail again!

I just read a couple of technology forecasts, from well known technology research firms. Here are the complied rough estimates by the year 2015. Forecast 1.1 billion HSPA and its variants; 400 million LTE; 400 million EVDO revs A and its evolutions; and 100 million WiMax subscribers. Do the math…Wimax gets 5% of the action. How is WiMax going to achieve reasonable scale for its chipset, device, and network manufacturers and operators? Scale amortizes the huge up front fixed costs. Scale is required to compete. For operators, scale means coverage. And subscribers want coverage, otherwise they don’t buy, or they churn. The reason Nokia generates 20% operating income margins and huge profits is because of scale; same with TI and Qualcomm. Can anybody from the WiMax camp explain how they are going to achieve scale?

Too easy to tear this piece up:
1) Intel is not the only WiMAX chipset vendor - there are dozens. But Intel probably cares marginally about making money on WiMAX - they care about adding value to their solutions around their processors.
2) Not everyone needs coverage everywhere. Many people will find value in just their own city and suburb covered. And if they visit other major cities on business or vacation, it will probably have coverage (in a year or two).
3) Handsets are not the be-all/end-all of mobile devices. Not everyone is overwhelmed by the idea of PC-like web browsing on-the-go like you.
4) Greater capacity for demanding services can be achieved by moving to OFDMA and by using a LOT more spectrum - HEY, that's what Clearwire has!
5) WiMAX will have MORE than 100M subs by 2015 to be sure. They could get that in India alone!

Don't quit your day job.

Anonimouse. Do you wonder why investors and industry and financial analysts have been hammering Clearwire's stock, since the anouncement? Do you really believe Intel investors don't care about making money on WiMax? Wonder what shareholders and directors have to say about "adding value," instead of profits. I can see it now - Intel gives away WiMax chips, then goes to Washington and asks for TARP bailout money. Sure. WiMax looks like another muni Wi-Fi and CT2 - limited coverage- adventure. What happened to those networks? You may consider getting a job on less risky technology.

They hammer it because they simply do not understand it. Their rational is that we have 3G networks, and voice subscriber growth is flattening. They are not able to figure out that WiMAX is not centered on voice and that 3G networks will not be able to handle the increase in data traffic. Financial investors typically look quarter-to-quarter and completely miss major changes that are coming, whether positive or negative.

Intel will not give away its chips. Neither will the other chipset vendors. Intel will make money on WiMAX chips, but if that is less than 1% of their revenue, then it is more valuable in that they will better position their processors with Centrino-like bundles. And if their processor business is where most of its revenues lie, then yes, it is far more important to bolster the value of most of your business.

Andy, You have outlined many valid concerns. It's an interesting dilemma where us Boomers are building stuff for the Millenials, like we know what they want. My 23 year old uses tech very closely to the way I do. While my 16 year old is very different. Time shows that betting against innovation and progress creates dinosaurs. Look for a phased transition.

Good point and great question. I concur, their spectrum is far inferior and the technology is truely fledgling at the moment. 700Mhz LTE will SMOKE these guys, VZW already has the subscriber base and WILL be able to deploy quicker and cheaper than Clearwire. Clearwire will Clearly fail within 3-4 years. ($3.2B is peanuts to try and cover 140M pops with cell range of 1/3 that of traditional wireless). Like Joe Biden says "MARK MY WORDS"

Too easy to tear your uneducated piece...

1. Intel is only a face of wimax and a promoter (like Don King was to Boxing), they plan to buy the best maker of wimax chips and put the intel sticker all over it. However, this will prove to be a terrible gamble on their part.

2. So what? other wireless data providers will have a seemless nationwide mobile data network before ClearClowns do, they will snuff out these guys before they ever get on on fours.

3. So what.

4. OFDM at 64 Quam with 2.5 Ghz = cell radius of .25 miles (like a hot spot on steroids or a mini micro cell'ette)... This will cost them north of $20B to cover 140M pops and it will take them 4-6 years to achieve this with mini sites every other block... don't be a fool, don't invest in this crap, it's a ponzi scheme, the latest investor is always holding the bag, now the fools are Google and ComCast for joining the party of blind and foolish.

5. BULLSHIT, they will barely start having a spotty network by then. They will have no more than 2M (that's 2 million) subscribers, and extremely lucky if that. This endeavor is a joke. I can back up my numbers, you pulled yours out of a crack somewhere. I encourage YOU, and only YOU to invest in this... please buy as many shares as you can! Everyone else, you know what to do.

Clearwire has a lot of spectrum. 2.5 GHz does make smaller cell sites, but MIMO and beamforming will help make some of that up.
1 You have
2 no idea
3 what you
4 are talking
5 about.

The shorts lurk in dark shadows, smelling blood, ready to pounce. With hoods drawn, scarves masking their faces, and fangs drawn, the shorts strike a stock down, as surely as a lion strikes a hapless new born antelope. But, the shorts don’t roar; they laugh and howl like hyenas about the newborns they’ve eaten. And they hiss and giggle as they collect their money, licking blood from their lips. They have no conscious. They do not care about OFDM, 2.5 GHz, 802.16e or .16d, MIMO, downlink speeds, uplink speeds, through-put and so on. Their senses are tuned to weakness and money…nothing else. And their collective subconscious listens to spirits wail and siren in the night. Spirits risen from the graves of city Wi-Fi, Iridium, CLECs, CT2, and more. The hunt continues.

Sprint ruined Nextel AND WiMax.

If Clearwire will be so easily smashed by the big 2 then why did AT&T attempt to block the merger.? I believe it is because they are concerned that it will be a competitor they don't want to deal with. Plus, with the list of Clearwire backers why is everyone so convinced that it will fail so quickly. Do you honestly think that Google, Intel, Comcast, etc., would support & provide financing for an idea / platform that risks failing in just 3 or 4 years. When you consider how forward thinking & innovating these companies have been in the past I'd be hesitant to write off Clearwire so quickly. Also, they wouldn't accept stock with a value of $17 per share (minimum) in exchange for their 3 Billion investment if they didn't honestly feel they have a very good chance of getting a good return on their investment.
 Merry Christmas 

Each WiMax investor has a strategic interest. They sell products or services to or from the JV and recoup their invetsments that way. Price valuations are secondary. As example, Motorola made bunddles selling networks to joint ventures in which they had investments...Iridium, Nextel, trunked radio operators and dozens of mobile telephone operators.

Ladies and Gentlemen, Here is the first installment of my new movie script.

Title: The WiMax Conspiracy
ACT 1 – The Hoodlums
Scene: U.S. Metro Area
The actors and dialog…

HSPA, “Let’s make trouble for WiMax. Dongle are you ready?”
Dongle, “Yes Sir! Sounds like fun.”
Embedded, “You can’t see me, but I’m ready too. Let’s rumble.”
EVDO – Rev A, “I’m all revvvved up. I want to kick some…”
LTE, “Hey, I’ll catch up with you guys shortly. I can’t wait to drag race WiMax.”
Qualcomm, “I’ll throw the party afterwards. Just got a boat load of money from Finland.”
VZW, “Yeah, I’ll buy the beer.”
AT&T, “Count me in.”
Customer, “I’d like some coverage please. And make it snappy!”
Banker, “It’s clear. I’m not lending my TARP money to Clear. Clearly, their plan is fuzzy.”
802.16 E, “This doesn’t look good.”
802.16 D, “Cousin 16 E, join me in Last Mile, NV. Even though its desert, it’s a green field. The hoods won’t bother you there. And you don’t need to buy expensive notch filters.”
802.16 E, “Are you sure?”
802.16 D, “Yes. And, you should go to Bali too. School kids, doctors, and businesses need us there. The beaches are nice, and the weather warm. It beats Baltimore in January. And it’s easier than dealing with all the Governors from Illinois.”
802.16 E, “We’ll I can’t move now. The cable guys and Mr. Chips are paying my rent. I’ve got to keep them happy for a while. Maybe when the money runs out in about 18 months, they’ll get tired, when I ask for more money. Yes, maybe I can go see the vast majesty of our rural lands, and overseas, where I am needed and where the people are friendly.”

ACT II – To be continued

Over the next 18 months, this plot will twist and turn. It’s full of mystery, suspense, drama, action, and maybe some Greek tragedy. Stay tuned.

Gotta go now. Need to call my Senators. The US car companies are trying to take my money, even though I’ve not bought one their cars in 18 years.

Good cheer and Merry Christmas! Mr. Mercury.

Seybold always comes across as a cheerleader for the big fat telcos. Anything outside of the box get his underwear wedged and he gets all cranky. His last paragraph is typical of himself but not where the consumer dollars will flow from. Look at your tweens, teenagers, 20 somethings and 30 somethings to see where the industry is going. Don't look to Andy "Bah Hum Bug" Seybold.

I would like to agree with only ONE comment on this entire thing. Does anyone here REALLY think that multi-billion dollar companies including Google and Intel would invest their money in what someone above so casually called a "ponzi" scheme? Does anyone here really think that Ben Wolff and the other folks at Clearwire just sat down with all those execs from all those companies and somehow managed to bamboozle them for two hours and hypnotize them into giving Cleawire 3.2 billion dollars? I think its hilarious that everyone here can have such a strong opinion about a multi-billion dollar investment involving multi-billion dollar companies, considering they were in the room.

Who would you rather bet on - Craig McCaw or Andy Seybold? The game has changed. Applications are now IP based. How will the telco's respond to the erosion of their voice revenue when everyone is running VoIP on data networks? Video will follow. 3G networks can't handle the loads or the latency.