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iPhones sold vs. activated don't add up?

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Wall Street is wondering once again where all the iPhones are going: AT&T activated 900,000 iPhones during its fourth quarter and it ended the year with slightly under 2 million iPhone customers, however Apple announced at MacWorld that it has sold some 4 million iPhones as of mid-January. While international sales account for some of the gap, analysts say there's more to the story. Toni Sacconaghi, a financial analyst with Sanford C. Berstein, said the gap means that Apple might have a demand problem and that the figures point to a build up of inventory at Apple's channel partners.

For more on the gap:
- read this article from One More Thing
- check out this article from Techdirt

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International sales make up a portion as do unlocked sales. Here in Canada there are thousands of iPhones and I am sure that is the case in other countries around the world.

I have my own opinon on the iPhone sales.
They were purchased for export and to be unlocked.
http://wirelessconsultant.net/blog

It seems to me that one of the biggest potential sources of mis-match between the numbers is the fact that many iPhones are purchased and simply never used. I would guess that the activation rate is only a bit lower (becuase of the extra complexity) than the fraction of iPods that successfully connect with iTunes.

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