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The Palm Pre smartphone has generated an enormous amount of excitement since it was first unveiled at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas in January. Since then, all eyes have been on the Pre's exclusive U.S. operator, Sprint Nextel, for a launch date. That came this week. Now that the June 6 launch date is set, the big questions center on how the device will actually perform in the competitive smartphone marketplace. Sprint CEO Dan Hesse said there will be Pre shortages for a while, but is confident that there is a enough demand for the Pre that Sprint does not have to mount a major advertising campaign for the phone.
Here's what a few industry analysts are predicting about the Pre's upcoming debut:
How do you think the Pre will perform in the market once it is launched?
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"If the product is going to be a significant success, it will be determined after the first 30 days--whether it has the staying power to continue sales with increased competition coming to market. "The bigger thing for Palm and webOS is when and how it makes it to other larger operators. That will determine whether they're successful or not. It will have to have success at Sprint, but it will also have to have success at other operators where their handset portfolio is much more competitive." --Hugues de la Vergne, principal research analyst for Gartner |
"I think the product can be successful at Sprint. And I think it will be in the early going.
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"It should do very well for the Sprint base. It might actually be able to persuade some Verizon [Wireless] and T-Mobile [USA] users to come over. It should help Sprint stem the losses. The weakness is that the app store is embryonic. "A significant amount of value in the device is also the software. It's like having a PC and the only thing you have is Paint and Minesweeper and Notepad. Oohh. But what really helps is if you have the Simply Everything plan. Then this becomes a better user experience than the standard feature phone that Sprint has. You have the opportunity to have all of the applications that will hopefully get developed. This is the device that the Simply Everything plan was designed for. "The [Samsung] Instinct pales in comparison the Pre. And it was the best-selling Sprint phone that they had in history." --Roger Entner, senior vice president of Nielsen's communications sector |
"It's as close to the iPhone as I have seen any device. The screen is very responsive. It works really, really well. ... We'll see what iPhone 3.0 offers. Competing against Apple is always a moving target, especially in June.
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"As you know, Sprint has had financial problems. Consumers are fairly aware that Sprint, at the financial level, is at a weaker level than someone like AT&T or Verizon. In our early surveys that was one of the biggest concerns. People who were fairly happy with Verizon or AT&T were struggling with the idea of going to the Sprint network, given Sprint's overall lack of strength. "When this thing comes out it better work. One of my actual fears is that it may have been rushed to market because of internal investor pressure. ... Having said that, they [Palm] know how to manufacture products. ... If they say it's ready, it's ready." --Tim Bajarin, president and principal analyst for Creative Strategies |
"There's no question that it's a very competitive smartphone. It's very well designed. I think, in my mind, the phone itself can be successful based on hardware and OS. The two huge factors that would actually determine its overall success will be, one, how many software developers back the product. Because ultimately these devices are only as good as the software and the applications that are on them. The second piece of the puzzle is getting traditional Verizon and AT&T customers willing to jump to Sprint.
Need more Pre?
--Click here for our Pre timeline
--Click here for a Pre video tour
Comments
Posted by Kevin Brown | May 22, 2009 - 11:27am
Way too late and with the wrong carrier. Timing is less of an issue than the fact that Palm blew it by not competing against the Blackberry Storm at Verizon. They would have had the huge Treo customer base to build from as well as an immediate marketplace in volume to sell which will attract developers. Sprint is a dead man walking; no device will save it.
Many of us travelers that use GSM would have loved the Pre to come to AT&T or TMobile. However, TMobile's customer base creates the same problems as Sprint's for a product launch, though TMobile's isn't eroding like Sprint. And unfortunately AT&T's clueless executive team are born-again evangelists for the Apple Jesus Phone, so there was no chance there for Palm.
My recommendation for Palm is to get unlocked phones out there in both GSM and CDMA formats as soon as possible. To heck with Sprint, if Palm doesn't sell a large number (1M+) in the first six months, then it's lights out for Palm. They need to be able to take a hit on the upfront hardware revenues to build the back end app revenues quickly.
Unlocked at a reasonable price and Palm could come back from the dead! I am a 5 yr Treo user that is looking for an Android or LiMo device ASAP. Pre could have been the ticket, but no GSM, no biz from me!
Posted by Anonymous | May 22, 2009 - 11:51am
I don't get why everyone is so down on Sprint. Sprint's problem is their inability to convince they aren't as bad as perceived. They just won the JD Power award for best cell service in the west. Their prices are very competitive and since they contract the Verizon roaming, (without the charges), you get the Verizon roaming without paying for all those people following you.
Anyway, I am really disappointed with the amount of information released about what the Pre will REALLY do. OK - we are all sick an tired of hearing about synergy. What about email attachments - what will it open and not open? If this is for business and consumer cross platforming, then as a business user, I need to know what I can do with it...email and calendaring isn't enough. I need to view attachments - mostly PDF's and some office docs. What about PPT, Vizio, etc? As a consumer, it is ample, but not enough to convince me to upgrade - my Treo already plays MP3s, open videos, etc. Yes it doesn't have the synergy which could have the potential to make my day more organized, but since I use my Treo more for business, if the Pre doesn't support my business uses, then I am not switching, no matter how "cool" it's touch screen and software are.
Posted by Anonymous | May 22, 2009 - 12:02pm
Dead man walking... Haha, that's obviously coming from someone that has no idea what financial stability means in life. Sprint has paid off the debt for 2009 and has cash flow for the next few years of operation. The pre coming to Sprint just means that they know a data friendly network which is what the handset is built for. T-Mobile a stronger company is a joke, if you want to say Deutsch telecom is a stronger company then fine, but T-mobile alone.. no..
Posted by ginf | May 22, 2009 - 12:29pm
The Pre should notrequire a simply everything plan***it would go right out the door*** or already existing customers should be able use the current data plans- and not forced to upgrade to a more expensive plan***Thanks-George-SLC-UT
Posted by Anonymous | May 22, 2009 - 1:26pm
Actually Sprint in the SW is as bad as they are perceived. I am a typical ATT customer and i would love to look at the Pre as an option, but no way would i move to Sprint. I just got done yanking my whole family off there service since they have such lousy service here in Texas. I also travel overseas a lot and have to have GSM capabilities. I hope we eventually get unlocked options or they get it to a real service provider (Verizon, T-Mobile or ATT) instead of a second rate guy.
Posted by Jay Steinmetz | May 22, 2009 - 1:37pm
Palm is up against Apple AND Blackberry and Nokia and Microsoft and Google and HTC and LG and Samsung for starters. Ahhhhhh!
One misstep and they will be beyond marginalized. Had they decided to go after a niche in the market they would have better chances.
The product looks great, but this truly untested product is only one device. What people don't get is that half of the Appstore applications are run on I-Touch devices. This creates a much stronger critical mass of customers running in a truly symbiotic ecosystem called ITunes.
Palm's existing customers are not going to stay loyal because up until recently the Treo was just not that reliable and it is completely NOT compatible with the Pre.
Since the WebOS is proprietary the appearance is that it will be only Palm coming out with hardware.
Many of my friends are buying I-Touches using Skype and dumping their home phone (wow). The Apple product has a common interface that is the de facto standard in consumer electronics.
I would love to see Palm do well but my guess is they cannot compete head to head effectively in this new market space against Google/HTC and Apple.
J
Posted by Anonymous | May 22, 2009 - 2:16pm
It has Docs To Go, just like the other Palm devices so YES, you can view PDF, WORD , EXCEL, PPT and even edit the last 3 mentioned.
Posted by Anonymous | May 22, 2009 - 11:22pm
The iPod Touch (mentioned above) is living proof that Palm unnecessarily killed their great line of PDA devices. Actually, Palm has made numerous bad decisions that flew in the face of their consumers and developers. It is possible that the Pre/webOS will resurrect the company, but we will all have to just wait and see. It's a tough market and the "best" device doesn't always win. I wish Palm no ill will, but if they do fail, the vast majority of the blame is their's.
Posted by Anonymous | May 23, 2009 - 7:39am
I am an iPhone refugee... I LOVED my iPhone, but the AT&T network was so abysmal, I missed the Verizon network MORE.... (I am not alone... that's why there's always such a stir on Gizmodo every time the VZW iPhone rumour resurfaces...
So I paid an early termination fee just to get back to VZW... AT&T has no excuse... I live in the NYC metro area & the network is horrible compared to VZW. However, I just have a cheap Samsung phone simply b/c after iPhone, I hated every Blackberry I tried...
I just wish the Pre was on VZW...
Posted by Anonymous | May 26, 2009 - 9:45am
Sprint has worldwide service, also has handsets that will utilize the GSM network incase CDMA is not available.
Posted by Anonymous | May 27, 2009 - 1:54pm
I have used my iphone now for almost a year, and it is in one word, overrated. Unfortunately, the phone is geared too much towards teenagers and people in their early twenties who mainly have the phone to show off to their friends. I can't wait for the Pre...I think it will take the touch screen smart phone to a whole new level.
As for Sprint, I believe they can turn things around. The network is getting stronger, and the service is no worse than AT&T's.
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