User Interface

Mark Lowenstein: The Emergence of MVNO 2.0

Mark Lowenstein — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 09:39:30 -0400

Over the past couple of years, we have witnessed the failure of many high profile MVNOs--Disney Mobile, Mobile ESPN, AMP'd, Helio--and the ongoing struggles of many others. Analysts and the press have declared the MVNO market all but dead. I think this proclamation is premature. In fact, we are witnessing the rebirth of the MVNO concept, but in a different form. My prediction: we will see a number of MVNOs be quite successful over the next few of years. Call it MVNO Version 2.0. Who might they be? What will they look like? And how will they impact the market?

Cutting right to the chase, we are seeing the birth of the first major 2.0 MVNO right before our eyes: Apple. We have conventionally defined the MVNO as an entity that purchases capacity on a carrier's network on a wholesale basis, uses a third party (MVNE) for back-end for OSS, and offers its own branded service, device, application suite, and markets directly to consumers. It is successful as an MVNO because the overall experience--device, applications, user interface--is compelling. The model is different from traditional MVNOs in that Apple is making most of its money from devices rather than services, and has a cooperative model with its host operators from the standpoint of distribution.

Another, far less sexy, MVNO that has traction is Jitterbug--the service from Great Call focused on the senior market. They have created a sufficiently different overall experience, from pricing to device to UI, that demonstrates their understanding of a market segment that has been under-addressed by the major operators.

To understand how MVNOs might be successful in this new clothing, we should understand why so many Version 1.0 MVNOs struggled. First, as retail wireless prices declined, the "spread" between wholesale and retail disappeared, leaving little margin on voice. Second, the relationship between the host operator and the MVNO has often been strained. Virgin USA, Boost Mobile and TracFone have been MVNO success stories because the operators were happy to "outsource" their prepaid business. In many other cases, MVNOs were treated as second-class citizens with respect to the latest devices, data network availability, or advanced features such as GPS. Clearly, many made significant errors themselves. They were naive about the capital involved and mis-spent what they had in some cases; misread their segments; and faltered on execution. Finally, I would say that their value proposition was not differentiated enough. Again, look at Apple. In nearly all aspects, the customer experience is significantly different, which we can see in the way people are using their iPhones.

But the stars are aligning to create MVNO Version 2.0, and it will be about more than Apple. One key element that is enabling the "rebirth" of the MVNO is a less monolithic mindset among the major operators. In AT&T's case with Apple, it is willing to be that dreaded "dumb pipe" in return for ARPU that is 50 percent above the industry average, thank you very much. In Verizon's case, the Open Development Initiative allows for the possibility of a third party offering a relatively complete service to subscribers, using Verizon's network and some components of its back-end infrastructure. ODI is in many respects the reincarnation of Verizon Wireless' wholesale business--2008 style.

Another key factor is a burgeoning application development environment. Yes, it is still frustratingly fragmented, but there is tremendous energy--and, now, real capital--behind developing applications for the Apple, Blackberry, Windows and Symbian operating systems.

We are also entering an era where there is greater abundance of network capacity. With consolidation, and the significant amount of additional spectrum that is coming online, operators might be more anxious to have additional major tenants. The definition of "service provider" will evolve as 4G networks are build, and we see a new class of data-centric devices.

We will have to broaden our definition of what constitutes an MVNO. Some will be at the vanguard of business model experimentation and will make money in different ways. For example, I believe there will be some MVNOs that rely on advertiser support of various flavors. For example, an MVNO in the U.K called Blyk, which is focused on the 16-year-old to 24-year-old segment is offering a bucket of free texts and voice minutes in return for users' willingness to view ads.

There also is significant opportunity for the provider who can effectively combine search, LBS and advertising. Targeted advertising enables the type of market segmentation that has been an integral component of the original MVNO concept, and the technologies are there to measure the effectiveness of this approach.

Who might some of these new MVNOs be? Here are some of my predictions:

Google. The much-anticipated Google device will feature a host of Google applications optimized for mobile, third-party apps based on the Android development platform, and over time, a business model more dependent on advertising than a traditional operator model.
International. Someone is going to come along and take a serious whack at exorbitant international roaming rates. We will see numerous approaches, from cellular VoIP to local HLRs to dual SIMs and SIM farms.
Auto-centric services. OnStar is one of the unsung success stories of the MVNO market, with more than 5 million subscribers. Ford has launched a competitive service called Sync that is being well received. Between auto companies' needs for additional sources of revenue, the steady spread of legislation concerning the talking/texting while driving issue, and the availability of applications that would be attractive in a vehicle, we should see a lot of innovation coming out of this sector.
M2M. This is an area that has been growing quietly but steadily. It doesn't have the buzz of the Apples and the Disneys, but operators see this as an untapped area and have been more willing to host third parties creating M2M apps.
Enterprise. There have been few success stories in the enterprise beyond email and mobile broadband. I do believe that over the next couple of years there will be some good application-specific plays, or perhaps an MVNO that develops a common platform offering a suite of enterprise applications (just don't call it middleware). Top candidates are in the sales force automation area and medical sectors. I also believe major operators will be more open to working with third party entities who really know these markets well.
Device-centric MVNOs. We are at the beginning of a new phase of device form factor and user experience evolution. Of course there will be numerous attempts to copy the Apple model. We will also see a host of devices optimized for particular applications, such as email, multimedia, games, and so on, employing a diversity of business models, from traditional operator to MVNO-esque like the iPhone.

The success of MVNO 2.0 is not assured. A challenging economy and a bad quarter or two could cause the operators to retreat like turtles back into their shell. One concern, in the U.S. at least, is where the MVNO "subscribers" will come from, as the major operators have been very effective at reducing churn and getting customers into "sticky" arrangements such as family plans.

So for those who thought they wrote the last chapter on MVNOs, we've already begun the sequel.

Mark Lowenstein is Managing Director of Mobile Ecosystem. Click here to subscribe to his Lens on Wireless newsletter, and to find out more about an exciting event planned for October, the New England Mobile Summit.

LG's big "Secret" targets Asia

Sue Marek — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 18:19:16 -0400

At the CommunicAsia conference in Singapore, LG unveiled its Secret handset, the latest addition to the firm's Black Label series. The phone will be available in Singapore, India, Indonesia, Australia, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines by the end of July. During the press conference to introduce the phone, LG executives said that the handset maker was trying to balance style with technology to create this handset. The HSDPA device operates in the 900/1800/1900 and 2100 bands and comes with an auto rotating display, 5 Megapixel camera and a touch user interface. It is made with carbon fiber and tempered glass.

LG has been furiously trying to increase its brand awareness in Asia, particularly in markets outside Korea. In 2007, the firm estimates its brand awareness increased 153 percent in Thailand and was up 50 percent in Singapore. The handset maker sold 24.4 million handsets in first quarter 2008 and hopes to sell 100 million units this year. In 2007, LG sold 80.5 million handsets globally, up 27 percent over 2006.

Secret, which launched in Europe in April, has experienced some early success. In the first two weeks, LG sold 200,000 Secret devices there. The phone launched in Latin America earlier this month. No word on when it will launch in the U.S.

For more:
- see this press release
- see these pictures of the LG Secret
- check this video of the LG Secret

Related story:
LG to overtake Motorola's market share soon

AT&T to launch Surface in-store experience soon

Thu, 17 Apr 2008 06:59:54 -0400

AT&T is launching Microsoft's Surface-enabled touch screen tables at four AT&T stores today, according to comments AT&T Mobility CEO Ralph de la Vega made at CTIA earlier this month. Stores in New York, Atlanta, San Antonio and San Bruno, California are rumored to be the first to commercially launch the new technology.

In AT&T stores it will be used as a means for users to access information about devices, rate plans and services. Microsoft's Surface has object recognition technology, so if a device is placed on the table, the surface displays information on that device. A user can even place multiple devices on the Surface side-by-side and the table will compare and contrast them. The user interface on Surface was designed by Microsoft's team, while some of the retail side applications were mostly designed by AT&T's design team with help from Avenue A/Razorfish.

For more on the Surface tables at AT&T:
- read this post from CNET

Sprint's iPhone-killer: Hardly a killer Instinct?

Mon, 07 Apr 2008 06:59:59 -0400

Sprint's iPhone-killer: Hardly a killer Instinct?

One notable trend that emerged from last weeks' CTIA 2008 trade show in Las Vegas and one that has been going on for some time is the iPhone-look-alike contests that vendors are engaging in. It's no wonder when AT&T reports surges in subscriber growth and a number of surveys point to the fact that the iPhone is driving data usage.

Will vendors and their operator partners manage to take a bite out of the Apple iPhone pie?

The latest entrants last week were Sprint and Samsung, which introduced the Samsung Instinct. In June, Sprint is planning a huge marketing push around the device, which looks quite similar to the iPhone in terms of a touch screen and form factor. Sprint spent 9 months working in partnership with Samsung and other experts to get the user interface consistent with the iPhone, said David Owens, director of product commercialization with Sprint.

Sprint believes the Instinct has some primary differentiators over the iPhone: the fact that the device operates over 1xEV-DO Rev. A versus slower EDGE, a cheaper pricing point (close to $200) and features like integrated navigation applications.

Still, despite the improved features from competitors and even lower pricing points, it's awfully difficult to compete against an icon like Apple. The iPhone is doing what the iPod has done during the last five years: It is successfully tying a usability story into a fashion story. That ability gives Apple the power to take the attraction to the iPhone to an entirely different level that other handset vendors have difficulty replicating.Ã‚Â

It appears that vendors and operators will battle it out among themselves over who has the best iPhone look-alike device, but will have difficulty touching the iPhone itself. -Lynnette

AT&T demos Surface for in-store experience

Thu, 03 Apr 2008 07:59:56 -0400

At a press luncheon, AT&T Mobility CEO Ralph de la Vega announced that his company will be the first to deploy Microsoft's Surface technology in their stores. Microsoft's Surface is a table with a 30" multitouch, multi-user interactive display. In AT&T stores it will be used as a means for users to access information about devices, rate plans and services. Microsoft's Surface has object recognition technology, so if a device is placed on the table, the surface displays information on that device. A user can even place multiple devices on the Surface side-by-side and the table will compare and contrast them. The user interface on Surface was designed by Microsoft's team, while some of the retail side applications were mostly designed by AT&T's design team with help from Avenue A/Razorfish.

AT&T will launch a pilot of the Surface in a few stores starting April 17, de la Vega said. AT&T stores in New York City, Atlanta, San Antonio and San Francisco will be the first to offer Surface.

Microsoft's Robbie Bach noted that his company is still working with other carriers, including T-Mobile USA, which is still evaluating the technology. AT&T is the first to launch Surface because the carrier took a "very aggressive" approach to launching the technology from the very beginning, Bach said.

For more on the Surface announcement:
- check out this slideshow from the AT&T press demo
- read the Surface launch press release

Yahoo leads $20M Vlingo funding round

Jason Ankeny — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 19:38:22 -0400

Voice-powered mobile user interface developer Vlingo announced the completion of a $20 million Series B financing round led by web services giant Yahoo, which today also named Vlingo its software partner on the new oneSearch 2.0 text- and voice-enabled mobile search service. According to Vlingo, proceeds from the funding round--which also included existing investors Charles River Ventures and Sigma Partners--will be earmarked to fuel international expansion and continue its R&D efforts.

Can Sprint make a cheaper iPhone?

Wed, 02 Apr 2008 07:59:58 -0400

Sprint is taking on Verizon Wireless' LG Voyager as well as AT&T's Apple iPhone with a new touchscreen phone that launched yesterday: the Samsung Instinct.

"This is certainly the biggest device that we will launch this year," David Owens, director of product commercialization at Sprint said. "We built it through a partnership with Samsung and even hired an expert to help us with UI design."

Sprint sought out the European design experts at Icon Mobile, because the current approach has not worked, Owens said.

"Icon Mobile helped us with the icons and other parts of the UI, but Sprint took a more aggressive role than we ever have in designing this device," Owens said. "It's the most aggressive push into UI I've seen by a carrier, and I spent 18 years at AT&T." Sprint conceded that the iPhone exposed a weakness in the market: user interface, so the carrier decided it needed to build a UI consistent with the iPhone experience, while creating a device that leverages the capability of Sprint's Rev. A network.

The carrier plans to launch the device in June and the marketing campaign surrounding the launch will be the biggest campaign Sprint has had by a factor of two or three times, Owens said. It's clear Sprint is banking its success in devices on the Instinct, but the device still has a few bugs to work out before the summer and the carrier has yet to announce a pricepoint.

A spokesperson for Sprint said the carrier has decided to sell the device for less than $299.99 and wants to push it as close to $200 as margins will allow. That would make for a mid-range iPhone clone with nice touches like localized haptics feedback (powered by Immersion), visual voicemail, a 2MP camera and an included 2GB microSD card.

"Sorry, Voyager. [Sprint's] not going to sell our subscribers a $299.99 phone and not give them any memory," Owens quipped. -Brian

For more on the Instinct:
- check out this slideshow over at FierceMobileEnterprise
- check out other new technology on show in this photo slideshow

Can Sprint make a cheaper iPhone?

Brian Dolan — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 20:38:24 -0400

Sprint is taking on Verizon Wireless' LG Voyager as well as AT&T's Apple iPhone with a new touchscreen phone that launched today: the Samsung Instinct.

"This is certainly the biggest device that we will launch this year," David Owens, director of product commercialization at Sprint said. "We built it through a partnership with Samsung and even hired an expert to help us with UI design."

Sprint sought out the European design experts at Icon Mobile, because the current approach has not worked, Owens said.

"Icon Mobile helped us with the icons and other parts of the UI, but Sprint took a more aggressive role than we ever have in designing this device," Owens said. "It's the most aggressive push into UI I've seen by a carrier, and I spent 18 years at AT&T." Sprint conceded that the iPhone exposed a weakness in the market: user interface, so the carrier decided it needed to build a UI consistent with the iPhone experience, while creating a device that leverages the capability of Sprint's Rev. A network.

The carrier plans to launch the device in June and the marketing campaign surrounding the launch will be the biggest campaign Sprint has had by a factor of two or three times, Owens said. It's clear Sprint is banking its success in devices on the Instinct, but the device still has a few bugs to work out before the summer and the carrier has yet to announce a pricepoint.

A spokesperson for Sprint said the carrier has decided to sell the device for less than $299.99 and wants to push it as close to $200 as margins will allow. That would make for a mid-range iPhone clone with nice touches like localized haptics feedback (powered by Immersion), visual voicemail, a 2MP camera and an included 2GB microSD card.

"Sorry, Voyager. [Sprint's] not going to sell our subscribers a $299.99 phone and not give them any memory," Owens quipped.

Verizon debuts a slew of new devices

Mon, 31 Mar 2008 07:59:58 -0400

On the eve of CTIA Wireless 2008 Verizon Wireless introduced five new devices including the BlackBerry Curve, the LG enV2, the Motorola Q9c, the XV6900 and the Samsung Alias. The XV6900 smartphone has a touchscreen user interface and uses Microsoft Windows Mobile 6. The phone retails for $349.99 with a $50 rebate and a two-year contract.

The enV2 is redesigned to be slimmer and is featured in a black and maroon finish. The phone will be available in April for $129.99 after a $50 rebate with a two-year contract.

The Blackberry Curve 8330 will be available in May and will operate on the carrier's EVDO network. The phone will retail for $269.99 after a $50 mail-in rebate with a new two-year customer agreement.

The MOTO Q 9c smartphone is targeted at business professionals and features the VZ Navigator service. The phone uses Microsoft Windows Mobile 6 and retails for $249.99 after a $50 mail-in rebate and a new two-year customer agreement.

Finally, the Samsung Alias will be available in mid-April and features the same dual-hinge design as on the SCH-u740. The phone retails for $129.99 after a $50 mail-in rebate with a new two-year customer agreement.

For more,
- see our photo slideshow of new releases

See these releases:
- BlackBerry Curve
- LG enV2
- Moto Q9c
- XV6900
- Samsung Alias

Touch trend affects keypad crowd

Fri, 15 Feb 2008 06:59:55 -0500

At the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona earlier this week, Digit Wireless seemed happy that the industry is currently obsessed with touchscreen technology for mobile devices. That's not because Digit makes touchscreen technology--far from it. Digit Wireless is the company behind fastap technology, which is an approach to keypad design that integrates a raised set of alpha keys and a lowered set of number keys, supported by error prevention software. Fastap-enabled handsets are geared toward that middle 70 percent--not the emerging market crowd or the BlackBerry toting heavy data user.

Digit Wireless says it has seen a lot of interest since the launch of the iPhone, because consumers, carriers and handset makers are once again looking to provide a better user interface for handsets and touchscreens are too expensive for the mid-range user.

Digit Wireless' new CEO Robert Blumenthal said that touch screen feature phones are sometime limited by the technology. "The Prada phone, for example, is too sensitive," he said. Blumenthal and other Digit executives agree, however, that fastap is targeted at the middle 70 percent of wireless subscribers: Not the upper 15 percent or bottom 15 percent.Ã‚Â -Brian

Live from MWC: Open systems, LTE and more

Mon, 11 Feb 2008 06:59:59 -0500

Live from MWC: Open systems, LTE and the mobile Web

After a day spent scurrying between press conferences and briefings, I picked up some common themes which I expect to hear more about as the Mobile World Congress progresses. Here's a rundown:

Ericsson and Nokia Siemens Networks both touted their LTE solutions and talked about how their next-generation network technology would revolutionize the mobile Web. Telstra CEO Sol Trujillo touted his company's success in Australia where Telstra's HSPA network from Ericsson is generating $100-plus ARPUs and data usage is surging.
Imaging handsets now have 5-megapixel cameras and music phones come equipped with FM-transistors.
Nokia's purchase of Trolltech means a future with open operating systems that allow developers to develop applications cross-platform. I expect to hear more of this cross-platform capability from others.
In the post-iPhone era, handset makers are working overtime on making the user interface simple and intuitive. As Nokia's Olli Pekka-Kallasvuo said during this morning's press conference, "As the technology inside the devices becomes more complex, people are demanding more simplicity."

Stay tuned to FierceWireless, FierceMobileContent and the FierceWireless:Europe for all our coverage from the Mobile World Congress. -Sue

Competing with the iPhone

Wed, 06 Feb 2008 13:32:56 -0500

Unlike last year's show, which took place a few short weeks after Apple unveiled the iPhone, all is quiet on the handset front leading into the Mobile World Congress. While Motorola mulls whether it should spin off its beleaguered handset business, other phone makers wonder how they can begin to top last year's showstopper.

"One of the lessons of last year learned from iPhone is that there is a new bar for how loud you have to be to cut through the clutter," Compete's wireless research director Miro Kazakoff said. "If there were any likely hit phones coming out at the show this year, the industry would have heard something by now."

The only high-profile launch slated for the show is Nokia's S60 Touch UI, which the company will be demonstrating at its booth. Rumor has it that Nokia will be making use of accelerometers for the user interface--those are the same type of sensors that Apple uses in the iPhone to automatically adjust the screen display from normal to landscape mode. The S60 Touch UI is a testament to the growing number of touch sensitive phones on the market. The feature is close to becoming a requirement on high- end feature phones that look to compete with the iPhone.

Rumors of a Google-powered handset made by Dell have circulated recently, but many industry pundits have thrown cold water on the prospect of such a deal. Others, however, claim that Google will launch its Android operating system at the Mobile World Congress on a phone made by Dell.

Few phone launches have turned heads lately, but one exception was Garmin's GPS-based smart phone, the nuvifone, which the company unveiled last week. While the handset boasts an MP3 player, video functionality and other multimedia features, its core is GPS and location based services. Perhaps its most compelling feature is an application that lets users geo-tag photos to easily pass along directions to other nuvifone owners.

"As phones get more powerful and given the inherent nature of how hard it is to pack more functionality into one phone elegantly, we are going to see a lot more targeted devices and segmentation," Kazakoff noted. "It's not completely clear what form factors and functionality will go into each of these categories, but we are going to see a market where phones are built for and marketed to specific groups and various types of users." --Brian

Google pushes back Android

Mon, 04 Feb 2008 06:59:55 -0500

Google has pushed back its Android Developer Challenge to April 14, 2008 after making significant changes to the SDK that include user interface and API enhancements. The challenge will provide $10 million in total awards to the best mobile applications built on the Android platform. Here is the timeline for the program:

April 14, 2008: Deadline to submit applications for judging
May 5, 2008: 50 first round winners picked
June 30, 2008: Deadline for the final round
July 21, 2008: Grand prize winner and runner-up announced

For more on the Android Developer Challenge:
- read this post from Google's Android blog

Related:
FierceWireless' Hands-On Android Guided Tour

Alltel's My Circle goes full circle

Fri, 18 Jan 2008 06:59:59 -0500

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Alltel's My Circle goes full circleÃ‚Â

I applaud No. 5 operator Alltel for its recent expansion of its My Circle calling program. The operator, which launched the first My Circle calling plan nearly two years ago, earlier this week expanded that offering to give customers more choices. In an era when the big Tier 1 operators seem to drive all the rate plan innovations, Alltel is a refreshing change of pace. The operator knows its customer base and caters to them.

Alltel's My Circle plan allows subscribers on rate plans of $49.99 or higher to select a certain number of phone numbers (wireless or wireline and from any telecom provider) and call them as much as they want for free. Initially, Alltel limited My Circle to 10 numbers. However, earlier this week the operator expanded it to include different options such as My Circle 5, which lets customers select five numbers, My Circle 10, which lets them select 10 numbers or My Circle 20, which provides unlimited calling to 20 numbers.

In a research note, analyst firm Current Analysis praises Alltel's decision to expand its My Circle calling plan saying that these plans are particularly compelling to small business owners, which have typically been ignored by large operators. "SMBs are an increasingly important customer segment for all carriers and favorable voice plans may be a compelling reason for them to choose Alltel over large carriers."

Of course, Alltel isn't the only operator to offer a calling circle. The most visible competitive offering is T-Mobile, which provides MyFaves. MyFaves allows customers to have unlimited calling to five numbers. Alltel's My Circle is more flexible because it lets customers change their My Circle numbers at any time from the Alltel website. T-Mobile only allows members to change each of their MyFaves once per month but lets customers make that change by using the user interface on the handset, which is a nice option.

With U.S. wireless penetration rates nearing 100 percent, operators need to come up with creative ways to keep customers from churning to other operators. My Circle is a good example of the type of innovation that works. -SueÃ‚Â

P.S.Ã‚Â In honor of Martin Luther King Day, FierceWireless will take a publishing holiday on Monday, Jan. 21.Ã‚Â Ã‚Â

2007: Not a Typical Year for Wireless

Fri, 21 Dec 2007 14:31:58 -0500

By Andrew Seybold

Those who write for organizations such as FierceMarkets are generally expected to write two columns at the end of each year-the first is a look back at the previous year and the second is about what lies ahead for the next year. This is the first part of my requisite two-column sequence.

2007 was a year of change for the wireless industry. There was the iPhone and the fanfare with which it was introduced, the almost instant price drop and the bragging rights about how many were sold in what period of time. Regardless of what you think of the iPhone and the AT&T deal, I believe that its introduction has already changed the wireless landscape for the better. Suddenly, real user interface improvements are coming from every wireless device vendor in the industry.

Next, of course, is Google's foray into wireless, first calling for open access, then saying it will bid in the 700 MHz auction. Google also introduced its free, open source operating system, Android, which is scheduled to be delivered on real devices sometime in late 2008. If Google does nothing more, it has changed the wireless industry. Verizon Wireless said it will be more open with its network starting in 2008 and Sprint and AT&T then said they were already open. The industry is still trying to define what open really means and how network operators can offer open access and still protect the integrity of their networks for the benefit of all of their customers, not just for the few with their demands. One thing is for sure: Open does not mean FREE! We will continue to pay for our access to these networks though, in fact, pricing models will change to reflect this new open access era.

No review of 2007 would be complete without a discussion of the multitude of lawsuits either settled or ongoing. Nokia, Qualcomm, Broadcom, RIM and many others are spending tons of money in legal fees in disputes about intellectual property rights, prior art, who is infringing upon whom and how much is a fair price to charge to license IP from the patent holder. This will spill over into 2008 and probably beyond. In the end, decisions about highly technical issues will be made by a non-technical judge and/or jury, based not on what they have come to understand about the technologies in question but rather whose attorneys can provide the least technical and understandable description of the issues.

2007 also saw more notebook computers built-in EV-DO and UMTS wireless data modems, and Qualcomm announced the Gobi world chipset for notebooks that provides all of these technologies in a single chipset. Notebook vendors can now build a single model, ship it anywhere in the world and know that there will be a wireless broadband network available for the customer.

Some realism began to creep into the Muni-Wi-Fi craze this year. EarthLink downsized and got rid of most of its muni-Wi-Fi team, San Francisco's muni-WiFi network was put on hold and several other cities cancelled their plans. Finally, the realities of muni systems using unlicensed spectrum with no sustainable business model are being acknowledged.

Meanwhile, in WiMAX land, 2007 ends with a real question mark in the United States. The Sprint/Clearwire nationwide partnership fell apart. Sprint has a new CEO, Dan Hesse. And Sprint's WiMAX network is in question. Are we or aren't we? Spin off? Continue to build? Build only to meet FCC build-out rules? Sell it off? Or what? Intel has to be very nervous. Its poster child for WiMAX may decide not to operate a WiMAX network after all, which could certainly affect the uptake in the rest of the world. But it will be up to Hesse to figure it all out, and my bet is that his package will be heavily incented to stop the bleeding, right the ship, cut churn and add more subscribers to the CDMA core network.

Clearwire and WiMAX had an IPO, the stock opened in the mid $20s, went up to a high in the low $30s and is now sitting at around $13 per share. After the IPO, they put into place a line of credit for yet another $billion in funds, and the uptake on their networks has not been great.

There were many other activities during 2007, but I have highlighted here the ones I believe will have the most impact on the industry moving forward. The last of these, of course, has to be the 700 MHz auctions the FCC authorized in August that will be held in January. The "C" block is the "open access block" and will draw the most bidders, the D block is an experiment in combining commercial and first responder networks and services, and the results of these auctions could have a far reaching effect on this industry for a long time.

To my thinking, the saddest thing for wireless in 2007 was that the Internet community did not come any closer to understanding the bandwidth differences between the wired Internet and wireless high-speed networks. Their vision is still for the Internet as we know it to become wirelessly enabled. I believe that the wireless Internet should be a different type of Internet based on smart networks and smart devices and not nearly as dependent on browsers.

2007 was full of surprises, but the demand for wireless continued to grow, as it will well into the future. What will 2008 have to offer? Stay tuned!

Andrew Seybold is an authority on technology and trends shaping the world of wireless mobility. A respected analyst, consultant, commentator, author and active participant in industry trade organizations, his views have influenced strategies and shaped initiatives for telecom, mobile computing and wireless industry leaders worldwide.

FEATURE: Seybold - 2007: Not a Typical Year for Wireless

Fri, 21 Dec 2007 06:59:53 -0500

2007: Not a Typical Year for Wireless

By Andrew Seybold

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