CDMA

CDMA standard now has 475M subscribers

Phil Goldstein — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 10:40:52 -0500

The CDMA Development Group (CDG) announced that the wireless standard now had about 475 million subscribers worldwide, with most of the growth coming from emerging markets.

The 3G standard, which is used by Verizon Wireless and Sprint Nextel in the United States, grew at pace of 15.7 percent between September 2007 and September 2008, according to the group. The Asia Pacific market makes up more than half of all CDMA subscribers worldwide, though the group said that in the North American region, the standard got 145 million new subscribers in the period, and that CDMA now accounts for more than 52 percent of the wireless market in the region.

By comparison, the GSM standard used by AT&T Mobility and T-Mobile USA in the United States with 120 network operators worldwide, has over 3 billion subscribers. Both standard groups have backed Long Term Evolution technology as the 4G standard going forward, though the CDG has also expressed support for WiMAX technology, which Sprint is pursuing.

For more:
- see this release

Related Articles:
CDG will support both WiMAX and LTE
CDMA Development Group completes OHM trials

CDG will support both WiMAX and LTE

Phil Goldstein — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 11:10:00 -0400

The head of the CDMA Development Group (CDG) said that the group will support its members regardless of whether they choose WiMAX or Long Term Evolution (LTE) as their 4G standard.

Perry LaForge, chairman and executive director of the CDG, said the group has to respond to the wishes of its members, who use the 3GPP2 standards (CDMA 1X and EV-DO), when it comes to how standards will evolve for 4G.

"The CDG role is based on what our members have asked us to do," LaForge said. "That is to continue helping them grow and build out their 3G systems, as well as to help them on interworking [with LTE and WiMAX networks]."

Sprint has cast its lot with WiMAX, and Verizon has indicated it will follow GSM leader AT&T Mobility to LTE.

LaForge said the CDG is working to foster cooperation between the competing standards. "We want to support operators whether they choose LTE or WiMAX," he said.

For more:
- see this article

Related Articles:
CDMA crowd embraces LTE, WiMAX
CDMA Development Group completes OHM trials

Does Verizon Wireless need an iconic device?

Lynnette Luna — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 11:31:36 -0400

Analysts are probably breathing a sigh of relief after Verizon posted a solid performance in its wireless business. But it was inevitable: The iPhone 3G did have an impact on the company's churn rate, albeit a small one.

Churn increased from 1.27 percent in 3Q 2007 to 1.33 percent in 3Q 2008. On a conference call with analysts, COO Denny Strigl acknowledged that the iPhone 3 caused "some" churn for the operator in the quarter, but he said he wasn't concerned about the full year churn numbers.

The churn rate was bound to increase given the fact that AT&T reported last week that 40 percent of iPhone 3G activations during the third quarter were new to AT&T. Just wait until we see third-quarter results from the rest of the industry's operators.

For so long, Verizon Wireless has successfully sold customers on its quality and coverage message and continues to garner the industry's lowest churn rate because of it (AT&T's churn rate came in at 1.7 percent even with the iPhone). But it is clear that a big reason a customer opts for one operator over another is because of the device--especially that iconic device. Will T-Mobile's G1 Android device be the next one?

Strigl noted that Verizon Wireless has a broad-based portfolio of devices and said "the company isn't wedded to any one iconic device." Is that by choice? Verizon's score of an iconic device would be a home-run proposition for the operator but we probably won't see one in the CDMA world unless the operator puts a lot of its own resources toward it.

CDMA is beginning to fall off the radar screen as Verizon and other major CDMA operators such as Bell Mobility, Telus and KDDI plan a jump to LTE and operators around the world flip to HSDPA. While EV-DO is going to be around for some time, HSDPA offers a wider customer base around the world. It makes more sense for Apple to develop devices for LTE and WiMAX rather than EV-DO. Kyocera is going to build an Android device for CDMA operators, but its highly doubtful other major handset vendors will.

My guess is that we'll see Verizon pursue some iconic devices in the LTE world, and it will certainly have the clout to do it. Until then, the operator will probably hold its own against AT&T--it just won't pull significantly ahead like it has been accustomed to in the past. Then again, analysts worry that the iPhone will be a one-trick pony for AT&T, and it won't have anything else up its sleeve once the fizz runs out. --Lynnette

A year after the hype: Where is open access now?

Lynnette Luna — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 01:06:02 -0400

It was at this time last year when the whole debate over wireless open access hit a fever pitch, and Verizon Wireless made big news when it said it was going to allow devices open access to its CDMA network in the second half of 2008. Everyone appeared to be clamoring for the opportunity.

It is now the second half of 2008 and one has to ask: Where are all of the devices? During a FierceWireless interview with Anthony Lewis, Verizon's vice president of Open Development, last month, Lewis indicated two devices had been certified on the network, a SupplyNet Communications device and an inmate tracking device made by Behavior Innovations. He also mentioned a low-cost handset that was in the process of being certified.

Those aren't exactly the sexy devices that many open-access proponents had envisioned. The thought around open access has been an Android-type device capable of running applications that don't have operators' fingers all over them--with the mantra of giving consumers a choice. But few of those type of open-access devices will probably see the light of day on Verizon's CDMA network. As John Jackson at Yankee Group correctly sees it: "Who is going to go out of their way to pay $400 for an unsubsidized open-access phone when they can get a similar phone from the operator for $49? Open access could become a lot more relevant if someone figures out a way to have a similar business model to Verizon. Is Google going to figure out how to give me unlimited voice and data for a set fee on someone else's network?" As such, we're likely to see a plethora of M2M devices come under the open access initiative.

One could argue that the open device initiative becomes more relevant on Verizon's LTE network it plans to launch in 2010, but who is to say that again Verizon won't bundle devices and service plans that are much more attractive than those from third parties? How much will open access be an opportunity then?

It has become clear that even though folks like Google have pushed for open access, they also understand that they need a relationship with operators to be successful because operators will consistently hold the upper hand. It's a lot easier and more profitable for third parties to partner with operators, or invest in them, than to create a separate device, service and marketing program to run on an open pipe.

And operators aren't going to sit still and become dumb pipes either. Clearwire, which is set to merge its operations with Sprint's WiMAX business, has a vision to enable a whole host of devices and applications without Clearwire touching the process. But Ben Wolff, CEO of Clearwire, said his company is quite concerned about becoming a commodity because of this open-access strategy and will work hard to ensure that consumers like its company's applications and services better.

"The expectation is that we want to sell value-added services," Wolff said during FierceWireless' virtual event, The Future of 4G. "We have to be able to deliver services in a way that has the right to earn the customer's business. Our view is people will be able to use us just for access if they want, but our job is creating enhanced services that our customers really want

All this begs the question: How relevant will open access be going forward? --Lynnette

20. Roger Linquist, Chairman, CEO, MetroPCS

Phil Goldstein — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 09:24:17 -0400

What makes him powerful: Remember when paging was a powerful force in the wireless industry? Roger Linquist certainly does. The long-time wireless veteran founded PageMart Wireless in 1989 and was a founding director of the CTIA.

That wireless industry knowledge came in handy when Linquist founded MetroPCS in 1994. As a flat-rate regional operator, MetroPCS offers innovative no-contract monthly plans that include unlimited long-distance, unlimited text messaging and more. The company's strategy is to launch its service in urban markets where population makes capital deployments more efficient. In April 2007, MetroPCS launched a $1.15 billion IPO.

Although MetroPCS lacks a nationwide footprint, the carrier recently made coverage less of an issue by ending all pending litigation with rival Leap Wireless. At the end of September, the two companies announced they would be entering into a national roaming deal that allows their customers to roam on each other's networks.

While rumors continue to bubble beneath the surface that the two will merge before the end of the year, Linquist has given no indication that such a move is imminent.

Linquist also made a canny move when MetroPCS announced the MetroFlash service in August, which allows customers with CDMA phones from other operators to bring their existing phone over to MetroPCS service and have it "flashed" so that it will work on the network, for a fee of $30.

As traditional operators encroach on MetroPCS' territory with their own flat-rate plans, the competitive landscape is intensifying. Linquist, however, seems to be succeeding in keeping MetroPCS a step ahead of the rest.

Cleartalk delivers CDMA to Texas markets

Sue Marek — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 11:31:48 -0400

Tier 3 operator Cleartalk has deployed a CDMA network using Nortel Networks gear in the AWS spectrum in the Amarillo and Lubbock, Texas, markets.

Cleartalk, which does business as Flat Wireless, offers flat-rate unlimited voice calling, text messaging and Web surfing.

For more:
-See this press release

Related article:
ClearTalk taps ZTE for 3G

Sprint lowers phone-as-a-modem pricing, but read the fine print

Lynnette Luna — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 11:46:31 -0400

Sprint Nextel has announced a particularly enticing incentive for mobile data users, but at least one analyst is warning folks to read the fine print.

The operator, which is struggling to keep customers, has dramatically lowered its phone-as-a-modem add-on plan price from $50 to $15 per month. To get the plan, customers must own a PowerVision phone with laptop connection capabilities. However, Current Analysis says the plan comes with strict requirements. Because the phone-as-a-modem option is an add-on feature, the $15 plan is only available with certain data plans.

"The attachable plan must be bought in conjunction with any one of three domestic or two global data plans for PDAs/smartphones, customers still have to shell out $45-$85 a month (on top of a monthly voice plan) and it may still boost Sprint's overall revenues. Before this, PAM (phone-as-a-modem) was $49.99 standalone with no base plan requirements," Current Analysis said.

For more:
- read RCR Wireless News

Related stories:
Rumor Mill: Is Sprint planning to reduce wireless modem rates? Modem story
Sprint customers continue to flee, base drops to 51.9M. Sprint story

Dell'Oro: CDMA infrastructure market took a hit in 2Q

Lynnette Luna — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 20:19:52 -0400

The Dell'Oro Group says that the worldwide CDMA infrastructure market fell more than 25 percent from the year ago quarter as Verizon Wireless and Sprint cut back on CDMA spending. The firm says Verizon Wireless' capex was down about $150 million, while Sprint's capex was down nearly $1 billion. "As a result of this contraction in North America, North America's share of the CDMA market fell to approximately two-thirds share, from over three-quarters share in the second quarter last year. Growth in Asia Pacific, particularly in India, helped to offset these declines," said Scott Siegler, analyst with the group's Mobility Infrastructure group. "In the quarter, Reliance, Tata and BSNL continued to see solid CDMA subscriber growth and continued to invest in the growth of their CDMA networks. However, we believe the region will experience declines in the second half of the year, as we expect all three operators to begin to focus more capital towards their GSM networks." Release

Enterprise mandate: Go wireless now

Sue Marek — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 17:27:38 -0400

Wireless is no longer an option for enterprises. With high-speed wireless networks and intelligent devices, IT managers are faced with a mandate to make their employees mobile immediately. Expect the show floor to be buzzing with security firms promising the latest software to keep proprietary corporate information safe in a mobile world and device makers to be showing off the latest handset capabilities that allow workers to morph their devices into efficient business tools.

Although RIM will have a high-profile presence at the show (co-CEO Jim Basillie will be a keynote speaker on Day 2), we expect Apple's iPhone 3G to be the center of many enterprise-device discussions. The enterprise applications that the iPhone supports may be narrow (email and browsing) but many IT managers are praising it for its ease of use and functionality. The next step: getting more enterprise applications available to iPhone users.

Finally, you know the mobile enterprise market has matured when one of the educational panels is devoted to value added resellers and how these players can better sell wireless to small and medium-size businesses. Check out "VARs: The Need to Know Session for Selling Wireless" on Sept. 11 at 4 p.m. in Room 2002.

CDMA is not dead yet

Sue Marek — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 11:51:27 -0400

Analyst firm ABI Research says that the CDMA market may be overshadowed by hype surrounding UMTS/HSPA, but CDMA operators are continuing to upgrade their networks to provide capacity for more bandwidth-intensive data services as well as increased network traffic.

ABI analyst Khor Hwai Lin says that EVDO Rev A subscriber numbers increased more than eightfold between second quarter 2007 and second quarter 2008. Not surprisingly, the U.S. and South Korea were the highest growth markets for EVDO Rev. A. The firm says that EVDO Rev. A subscribers will exceed 54 million by 2013 while Rev. B subscribers will also increase to 25 million.

On the HSPA side, ABI says that more than 31 million subscribers already use HSPA while 3.2 million subscribers are using HSUPA as of second quarter. The analyst firm estimates HSUPA subscribers will reach 139 million by 2013.

For more:
- see this release

Related stories:
CDMA crowd embraces LTE, WiMAX
Interest in CDMA EV-DO Rev. B heating up

Is Sprint selling its iDEN business?

Sue Marek — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 09:11:20 -0400

During yesterday's second quarter earnings call with investors, Sprint executives tried to gloss over the continued losses to the firm's ailing iDEN network. CEO Dan Hesse remarked that the company is committed to improving service levels on iDEN and that the network is performing at "the best levels ever."

But Sprint executives couldn't hide the fact that customers are still churning from iDEN at a rapid rate. At the end of second quarter, Sprint had 14.6 million subscribers on iDEN, down from 17.3 million at the end of first quarter. And don't be fooled, those iDEN subscribers aren't migrating over to PowerSource (phones that use both iDEN and CDMA). At the end of second quarter, Sprint had 1.7 million PowerSource customers, only slightly up from 1.4 million at the end of first quarter.

During the call, CEO Dan Hesse skirted questions about whether the company would consider selling its iDEN business. Hesse diplomatically said that he would consider all potential offers on the table and not discount any without further review. Clearly something needs to be done to fix the problem and analysts such as Walter Piecyk of Pali Research believe that it's inevitable that Sprint will sell its iDEN network. In fact, Piecyk said that yesterday's announcement by Sprint that it plans to make an offering of $3 billion in cumulative perpetual convertible preferred stock is another sign of iDEN's imminent sale. Piecyk says that the convert deal will offer added liquidity so Sprint can sell iDEN and prevent debt from being transferred to the acquiring company.

If Sprint is preparing to sell iDEN, who would be the potential buyer? I suspect there is an opportunity here for some savvy firm that is willing to cater to the prime Direct Connect customers that Sprint seems unable to maintain. I'm talking about those blue collar professionals that Nextel carefully selected back in the early 90s. Any ideas? --Sue

Nortel sees slower CDMA sales

Sue Marek — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 12:36:55 -0400

Alcatel-Lucent isn't the only vendor feeling the squeeze from a decrease in CDMA sales in North America. Nortel Networks today reported second quarter revenues of $2.6 billion, up slightly from $2.56 billion a year ago. However, the company had a net loss of $113 million, compared with a net loss of $37 million a year ago. The firm blamed the losses on economic weakness, competitive pressures and a reduction in spending from key North American customers. Nortel also said that its CDMA sales were down from $494 million last year to $446 million this year. On the GSM side, revenues were up more than 11 percent to $448 million.

Nortel announced earlier this summer that it was shifting its R&D efforts to LTE and teaming with Alvarion on all WiMAX initiatives.

For more:
- see this Light Reading story
- See this WSJ story (sub. req.)

Related articles:
Alca-Lu stung by CDMA weakness
Nortel teams with Alvarion on WiMAX; focus moves to LTE

LG posts good quarter, warns about current quarter

Lynnette Luna — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 13:00:53 -0400

LG Electronics is forecasting a tough third quarter despite posting positive results for the second quarter. The handset vendor said it is facing slowing shipments to emerging markets and higher competition in developed markets.

The handset maker, which ranks fourth in the handset market in terms of global shipments, said revenues grew 39 percent from the year-ago quarter to $3.7 billion, which was more than one-third of the parent company's revenue in the second quarter. The division reported an operating profit of $531 million, up nearly 12 percent over the year-ago quarter.

LG shipped 27.7 million handsets, with North America accounting for 34 percent of its global markets, up 45 percent over the year-ago quarter and a 14 percent increase sequentially. The question is: Has LG overtaken Motorola's market share?

For more:
- see RCR Wireless News

Related story:
LG to overtake Motorola's market share soon. LG story

Nokia, Qualcomm head to court this week over CDMA patents

Lynnette Luna — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 11:57:07 -0400

The simmering battle between Qualcomm and Nokia is heating up again as the two technology giants head to court on Wednesday to determine whether Qualcomm's charges of royalties for CDMA are too high. While the trial won't likely settle the dispute the two have over a patent agreement that expired in April 2007 pertaining to royalties Qualcomm charges for WCDMA chips, it could offer the winner of this trial some leverage in that dispute.

At issue on Wednesday in a Delaware court is whether, as Nokia contends, Qualcomm forfeited its right to seek injunctions in lawsuits to enforce patents because it promised European standards-setting bodies to license its patents under fair and nondiscriminatory terms. Nokia also claims that it is paid up on Qualcomm's key patents while the rest should be valued much less when taking Nokia's own patents into consideration.

Of course, Qualcomm says Nokia is wrong about the worth of those other patents and its "fair and nondiscriminatory" agreement with standards bodies. It contends that Nokia extended their existing license agreement by default by using Qualcomm inventions after the agreement expired.

Vendors have long grumbled about the amount of royalties Qualcomm charges for CDMA-based patents. Nokia and Qualcomm have been filing a number of lawsuits in the U.S. and Europe against each other over patents since 2005.

For more:
- read the WSJ (sub. req.)

Related stories:
Qualcomm-Nokia lawsuits continue to fly. Lawsuit story
Nokia sues Qualcomm in Europe. Nokia-Qualcomm story

Mary Chan - Top Women in Wireless

Tue, 15 Jul 2008 11:41:55 -0400

Mary Chan

President, wireless networks at Alcatel-Lucent

Like many wireless executives, Mary Chan started her career in 1985 at AT&T Bell Labs where she honed her engineering talents and laid the foundation for her long-time career with Lucent and then Alcatel-Lucent.

Chan currently leads the wireless networks organization at Alcatel-Lucent where she is responsible for the CDMA networks and mobile access business division that covers all wireless technologies including CDMA, W-CDMA, GSM, WiMAX and TD-SCDMA.

Chan's role is particularly important to one U.S. carrier--Verizon Wireless. Verizon, of course, is one of Alcatel-Lucent's biggest U.S. customers and the carrier awarded the vendor a $6 billion contract in 2007 for its EV-DO Rev. A and IMS gear.

MetroPCS will flash existing CDMA handsets

Sue Marek — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 11:55:48 -0400

Flat-rate carrier MetroPCS is offering potential customers a unique proposition--come to MetroPCS and you don't have to buy a new phone because the operator will reflash your existing CDMA handset so it will work on the carrier's network. Of course, this will only work with CDMA handsets, so that means it will primarily benefit customers that have purchased phones from Sprint, Verizon Wireless, Alltel, U.S. Cellular, Leap Wireless or another CDMA operator.

Called MetroFlash, the service will cost customers $30 and then they can get unlimited local, long distance, voicemail and text messaging from MetroPCS for $40 per month (the first month of service is free). MetroFlash is available at all MetroPCS company-owned stores and select authorized dealers in all MetroPCS markets except Las Vegas and Shreveport/Bossier City.

This is probably a smart defensive move for flat-rate carrier MetroPCS. The company is facing increased competition from nationwide operators and MVNOs that have recently launched unlimited airtime packages.

For more:
- see this release

Related story:
MetroPCS taps Alcatel-Lucent for AWS buildout
Virgin goes unlimited for $80 per month

China's operators move ahead with restructuring

Lynnette Luna — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 11:09:28 -0400

China's operators are moving ahead with the country's planned restructuring of the telecoms sector, swapping assets and making acquisitions via agreements worth billions. China Unicom announced China Telecommunications Corp. is purchasing Unicom's CDMA business for about $15.9 billion, creating one of the world's largest operators with more than 43 million CDMA customers and more than 216.3 million fixed-line subscribers, including 38.4 million broadband customers.

In a deal valued at $56.3 billion, Unicom is also merging its GSM business, which supports about 125.4 million subscribers, with fixed-line operator China Netcom, an operator that has about 109 million customers. Each share in Netcom will be swapped for 1.508 Unicom shares.

In another merger, mobile giant China Mobile Communications, which supports almost 400 million subscribers, is combining with fixed-line operator China TieTong Telecommunications.

The question now is: Will we begin to see tenders for 3G networks? China's regulators recently promised three 3G licenses will be tendered once restructuring is complete.

For more on this story:
- read Unstrung

Related stories:
Too good to be true? China plans to issue 3G licenses. China editorial
China continues to hedge on 3G. China 3G story

Is China finally moving to 3G?

Sue Marek — Tue, 27 May 2008 11:30:49 -0400

China reportedly is ready to issue 3G licenses after six years of promises and delays. While announcing it plans to restructure China's telecom service providers, China's regulators also announced that three 3G licenses will be granted once the restructuring is complete.

The Chinese government has been delaying the 3G process in a bid to get its home-grown standard, TD-SCDMA, up to par with WCDMA and CDMA 1xEV-DO. To date, the country's carriers have spent a significant amount of money on TD-SCDMA trials and may possibly offer services during the 2008 Olympic Games this summer.

The impending 3G awards should be good news for the world's vendors, which have been banking on China opening up the market to 3G and bolstering their business. There should be some aggressive fighting for contracts, especially when Huawei and ZTE have been fighting for market share outside of China.

For more about China's 3G plans:
- read this Unstrung article

Related stories:
- Analyst: China's 3G still years away. See this China 3G story
- China to begin home-grown 3G technology trial. See this TD-SCDMA story
- China continues to hedge on 3G. See this 3G in China story

Lowenstein: Who will be the next king of wireless data?

Mark Lowenstein — Wed, 21 May 2008 10:50:42 -0400

By Mark Lowenstein

I am very pleased to inaugurate this series of monthly opinion columns with Fierce Wireless, reprising the role I had for several years at Wireless Week. As many of you might know, I was most recently vice president, market strategy at Verizon Wireless. I have moved back to Boston and re-launched Mobile Ecosystem, the consulting firm I ran for five years following my role as leader of the Yankee Group's wireless practices.

So, let's get right into it with a provocative question: Name two or three companies who have built a substantial, sustainable business out of the $100+ billion in data revenues that the U.S. operators have reported this decade. Let's look at what has happened recently to some of the companies that were so instrumental in building the first generation of wireless data:

OpenWave: Operates mobile data gateways in more than 70 carriers around the globe, and its browser is on more than a quarter of the world's phones. Market cap is less than $100 million.
Verisign. Buying spree included M-Qube, which had emerged as the leading firm powering mobile marketing and off-deck content, and Jamba, one of the leading ringtone providers. Most of senior management team has left and the firm plans to divest of several wireless assets.
Infospace. Rode the ringtone wave for a time, but lost share in mobile portal business. Was acquired by Motricity in December 2007 for a modest $135 million.
Motricity. Along with Infospace, operates the "vending machines" and powers the mobile Web for the majority of North America operators. Yet this company has burned through some $300 million of its investors' money, has never reported a profit, and just laid off one-third of its staff.
Qualcomm (BREW). Qualcomm's BREW platform has successfully powered several leading operators' wireless data offerings. But the signals are pretty clear that signature operators are looking to reduce their dependence on BREW with the movement toward a more open development framework.
Handmark and Handango. These are two leading content aggregators that have done a respectable job of building a solid content library and some meaningful partnerships. Both have raised a substantial amount of money and are still looking to break out.

Now, here's another question: Thinking about all the companies you work with, the press you see, the columns you read, and the events you attend - who are the four companies that are receiving the most attention as key players in the next generation of wireless data? I would posit they are Google, Apple, MySpace and Facebook. Up there but trailing slightly behind are Nokia, RIM and Yahoo. And maybe Microsoft or AOL if combined with someone else to counter Google.

So here's what's interesting: device revenues aside (for Nokia, RIM, and Apple), few of this second wave of players is an incumbent in the wireless data value chain, and none is generating meaningful revenues today from wireless data content or applications. Also notable, if not obvious, is that the list is dominated by today's Internet kingpins, which is ironic because we've been saying for years that the mobile Internet will not be the same as the wired Internet.

Even though these companies are receiving plenty of hype and attention, their success in wireless is not a foregone conclusion. Their plans are based on the movement toward a more open, Internet model for the development of content and applications--and we are still in the very early stages of that. The monetization scheme is also highly predicated on the success of mobile advertising in various forms.

Some of the more exciting start-ups in wireless today are taking an Internet-centric approach to wireless. Look at how JumpTap and Medio, two companies with early traction in mobile search, are placing greater emphasis on advertising, or how AdMob is trying to be the "DoubleClick of wireless." And how about the seemingly dozens of companies that are taking a "widget" out of the Apple playbook (OK, I apologize) and are building, yes, widgets/tiles/applets for the mobile device.

Even as we discuss the evolution to a more Internet-like model, I think the "walled garden" will continue to be an important force. This vertically integrated approach still delivers a superior user experience, despite more limited content offerings. A good example: RIM's Facebook application is the best execution yet, in my view, of mobile social networking. But this only works on a Blackberry--and by the way, RIM is not making any additional money from this or any other app on Blackberry.com (yet). Hmmm...

What we could see is a "shifting" of the walled garden, to include some viable additions or counters to the operators. My view on the strongest contenders:

Apple. In addition to the iPhone, iTunes could become a powerful distribution mechanism for mobile content, as has happened recently with TV and movies in addition to music.
Nokia. We discount them in the U.S. because of their relatively low market share here. If you look at the moves they have made over the past three years, they are clearly looking to take on Apple and Google in the evolution of wireless.
Yahoo (along with someone). They are gaining traction with operators around the globe after years of false starts. They could be the closest the operators get to a true partner in search and advertising, especially if Google is perceived to be an increasing threat.
RIM. A dark horse candidate. They have maintained share in the smartphone market and are accelerating their product development cycle. But they need to play a greater role in the multimedia and applications universe. To compete on a larger stage, they will have to make some acquisitions, or develop more meaningful partnerships with the Internetarati.

So, for my first column, lots of food for thought...and debate. I'd love to hear your comments. Please feel free to email me.

Mark Lowenstein is managing director of Mobile Ecosystem. He can be reached at mlowenstein@m-ecosystem.com. Click here to subscribe to his Lens on Wireless newsletter.

Alltel joins AT&T, Verizon Wireless with LTE roadmap

Brian Dolan — Fri, 16 May 2008 11:47:35 -0400

During its first quarter conference call with investors, Alltel announced that it was committed to evolving its network to LTE over the next five years. The move makes Alltel the second biggest CDMA carrier in the U.S., after Verizon Wireless, to commit to the LTE standard, even though LTE was originally on the GSM evolution path.

"We do currently plan to move towards LTE in the three-to-five year timeframe vs. WiMAX, but we're still early in that," President and CEO Scott Ford said during the call.

Alltel's COO Jeff Fox, however, noted that the carrier won't be talking seriously about LTE this year. "We are working through our planning phase and will be talking to our board about all that over the next two quarters," Fox said. "Certainly there's no money for 4G evolution anytime in our near-term plans, and so I think from a cash-flow perspective you should not expect to see us talking about 4G anytime at least in 2008."

For more on Alltel's LTE choice:
- read this RCR article