Spectrum Auction

Should the mobile operator community be concerned about cable operators?

Lynnette Luna — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 00:22:16 -0400

Are mobile operators really worried about cable operators' entrance into the mobile world? The answer may be: It depends.

Earlier this month, cable provider Cox Communications revealed a little more about what it will do with the 700 MHz licenses it won earlier this year in the 700 MHz spectrum auction. Speaking at the Progress and Freedom Foundation's Aspen Summit, Cox President Patrick Esser said the company will provide simple calling plans and it will integrate all its services into one device with a consistent cross-platform interface that will make all the company's content and applications mobile. Cox has reportedly tapped Chinese infrastructure vendor Huawei to build its CDMA-based network in the U.S.

That sounds a lot like what Cox tried to do with other major cable companies and Sprint Nextel with the Pivot wireless venture. Pivot was supposed to enable cable partners to offer wireless service and applications such as wireless email and place-shifted programming. It was plagued with provisioning problems and basically ended up becoming another service cable customers could buy from their provider. The joint venture ended in April.

Before the demise of Pivot, Time Warner CEO Glenn Britt said interest in Pivot was tepid. And he questioned how wireless could help cable operators. "The broader point is whether people will really have a great desire to buy cell phone service from the people they buy wireline triple-play services from," Britt said last November. "There's nothing in our market research or experience to indicate demand for that is overwhelming."

Nevertheless, cable folks keep looking for ways to effectively compete in the wireless industry. We just don't know much about their plans. SpectrumCo, which consists of Comcast, Cox, Time Warner and others, is sitting on $2.37-billion worth of AWS spectrum. Charter Communications is sitting on spectrum in the 700 MHz band. Do these players really want to go outside of their core competency and spend billions on network rollouts? We have yet to see an outsider come into the wireless industry and successfully compete, and such initiatives have often turned into unwieldy mega-million dollar investments. Just look at EarthLink's muni-WiFi debacle.

Perhaps most promising is the investment Time Warner, Comcast and Bright House have made in the new Clearwire, which is combining with Sprint's WiMAX business, to create a nationwide WiMAX player. At least wireless broadband is more closely aligned to what cable operators are offering today. Moreover, Comcast's plans for femtocells might be the smartest strategy yet. Dave Williams, Comcast's senior vice president of wireless and technology, recently revealed that part of the cable company's deal with Clearwire calls for 5 megahertz of spectrum across the U.S. to be set aside solely for WiMAX femtocells.

The femtocell spectrum will be available for any of the new Clearwire partners to use, but Williams said that the cable companies will have the most incentive to use it because it allows them to cost-effectively deliver wireless to the home. While we continue to hear about the benefits of femtocells for the mobile operator community, namely expanding coverage and offloading high-traffic, femtocells will be just as important to cable operators. That's because residential mini base stations will require the mobile traffic to backhaul through a wireline broadband connection. Once consumers begin using their cable connections for such a purpose with mobile operators behind the initiative, cable operators risk losing their VoIP customers while giving up their bandwidth to the competition. Plus a player like Comcast has the power to guarantee QoS in the home.

As such, Comcast is smart to push WiMAX femtocells and content that will run over them before the proliferation of femtocells from the mobile operator community. And that notion is one that should concern mobile operators.--Lynnette

Cox will integrate wireless into cable offering

Sue Marek — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 10:30:28 -0400

Cable provider Cox Communications revealed a little more about what it will do with its 700 MHz licenses that it won earlier this year in the 700 MHz spectrum auction. Speaking at the Progress and Freedom Foundation's Aspen Summit yesterday, Cox President Patrick Esser said that the company will provide simple calling plans and it will integrate all its services into one device with a consistent cross-platform interface that will make all the company's content and applications mobile.

Cox has reportedly tapped Chinese infrastructure vendor Huawei to build its CDMA-based network in the U.S.

Earlier this year Cox joined with Sony Electronics and five other cable companies to agree to use tru2way, a Cable Labs standard that will allow consumers to access interactive digital and high-definition video without a set-top box. It is an open source platform that will work across every device from every manufacturer.

For more:
- see this article

Related article:
Report: Cox tapped Huawei for CDMA build out

T-Mobile pressures FCC to reconsider free wireless Internet plan

Sue Marek — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 10:47:15 -0400

T-Mobile USA sent one of its top executives to Washington, D.C. to plead with the FCC to reconsider its controversial plan to auction a nationwide block of spectrum that would require a licensee to offer free broadband services. On Thursday, T-Mobile's CTO flew to D.C. to meet with the FCC on its proposal. "We're asking the FCC essentially to slow down and give the industry some time to do some testing," said T-Mobile Chief Technology and Innovation Officer Cole Brodman.

T-Mobile argues that Internet activity on the AWS-3 band would interfere with its own wireless services. The company paid nearly $4.2 billion in the AWS spectrum auction and it plans to use this spectrum to roll out UMTS in 26 markets by year-end.

The commission is proposing to combine the 2155 to 2175 MHz band with the 2175 MHz to 2180 MHz band to create a 25-megahertz swathe of spectrum that would support a nationwide license. The spectrum is referred to as advanced wireless services-3 and would require the licensee to dedicate 25 percent of its network capacity to free broadband service, install a network-based Internet filtering system to block pornography and allow open access to third-party devices and applications.

A delay on the proposal for the AWS-3 spectrum auction is likely. Last week FCC Chairman Kevin Martin said that the sale of this spectrum could be put off until early next year. This is bad news for M2Z Networks, which originally proposed the plan. The company is anxious to move ahead with the auction since it is currently subsisting on venture capital.

For more:
- see this article

Related articles:
T-Mobile calls for delay of FCC's free wireless broadband initiative
Andrew Seybold- A New Wireless Opportunity!
Interview with M2Z: Free wireless broadband can work. M2Z interview
FCC looks to fast-track free wireless broadband network initiative. Wireless broadband story

Mark Lowenstein: How Will Wireless Be Affected by the Economic Downturn?

Thu, 17 Jul 2008 12:15:49 -0400

So far, the wireless industry has been relatively unscathed by the economic downturn. Operators reported solid first quarter numbers, spectrum auctions in the U.S. and Canada exceeded expectations, and there has been no pullback yet in capex plans. However, it appears that we are in store for sustained economic challenges, with real casualties across the financial, auto, and retail sectors--and the first bear market in some time. The new reality of commodity pricing is having a measurable impact on consumers' pocketbooks. So as we move into the second half of the year, it's worth a closer look at whether, and how, the wireless industry might be impacted.

It should first be recognized that the economic troubles are more acute in certain countries, so the fact that wireless is a global industry is an important insulator. Equipment and handset manufacturers are benefiting from the engines of a select number of important geographies that are still racing to build out or upgrade networks and are seeing steady organic subscriber growth.

Stateside, I believe the industry has taken some important, and uncharacteristically proactive steps as a hedge. For example, the "unlimited" plans are getting more customers into predicable, post-paid pricing plans and have greater potential for voice ARPU stabilization/accretion than dilution. Additionally, having more customers in these sorts of plans potentially reduces costs, as there are fewer calls into customer care. Concerns about the economy plus financial market realities have also accelerated the pace of industry consolidation, most notably Verizon-Alltel and Virgin-Helio--and might have kept some "new" industry players from going too far in the 700 MHz auction. The pricing of the 3G iPhone is also a nod, in part, to economic jitters, recognizing the sub-$200 price point that seems so critical for mass market adoption of a wireless device.

So far the wireless industry has held up pretty well. But what happens if the economic situation worsens or is prolonged? Well, we won't see wireless subscribers giving up their subscriptions. Cellular has become a "must have" for just about everyone. In fact, wireless subscriptions could see an initial uptick, as households consolidate their number of "lines." For example, much of the fixed access line loss to date has come from households switching their second line over to mobile and/or broadband. If the economy continues to be poor, we could see more households take out their remaining fixed voice line in favor of mobile.

What would be most affected are the "nice to have" categories. Today's "must haves" in the communications universe are a mobile phone and a broadband connection. For 30 percent to 50 percent of the wireless market, I would argue that SMS is a "must have," because of its pervasiveness in certain segments, and its role as a substitute for more expensive services such as mobile email or additional voice minutes. The "nice to haves" in wireless compete more directly with the myriad devices, services and entertainment options in today's digital universe. Consumers might have to start prioritizing. My view of the areas most likely to be affected includes:

Handset replacement rates. U.S. handset replacement rates average 1.7 years--among the most aggressive in the world. A slowdown in the handset replacement rate would be a natural result of consumer caution, and could affect the 2008 holiday season, for starters.
3G Broadband subscriptions. Mobile broadband subscriptions have grown at a 50 percent or greater annual clip for several years running. This market could start running out of steam if times are difficult. It is a "need to have" among the mobile professional set, and there is still room for growth there. But consumers represent an important growth segment for mobile broadband, and they might choose to consolidate around a more capable smartphone and look harder for (the growing number of) free hotspots. Operators will have to offer more flexible pricing for broadband access, for example better options for "occasional" use.
Mobile applications. We have already seen a leveling off in the growth of personalization applications such as ringtones and wallpaper. Mobile gaming has been stagnant. The most vulnerable categories, in my view, are those that require an ongoing subscription. Consumers might start looking hard at the value they are deriving from the "add-ons" that cost $5.99 for this and $10.99 for that. If, in their digital universe, they have to choose between DVR service and Mobile TV, what do you think they're going to do? We are likely to see a migration to more of a "cable industry" model for pricing, where $20-25 buys you a pretty broad swath of services--messaging, email, location, browsing--with premium content available on a "pay per view" basis.
Appetite for risk. When times get tough, you focus on the fundamentals. Operators will be less willing to take risks on new applications, and will be more cautious with initiatives that are high on the risk/reward scale.

There are a couple of longer-term effects that I can see happening. First, I think there will be even greater-than-usual pressure on suppliers. We have already started to see a slight decrease in handset ASPs--this despite a growing percentage of smartphone sales. There will also be an opening for equipment vendors with particularly aggressive pricing. Second, if wireless does start to show visible effects from the economic downturn, we could see a reduction in capex spending plans. 3G might not get as widely built out, there could be less need to increase data network capacity, and we could see a delay in 4G rollout plans.

Of course, in every cloud there's a silver lining and we could see some uncharacteristic winners emerge from an industry downturn. Operators, in an attempt to avoid an all-out price war, will introduce more flexible pricing options, such as bigger bundles of data services, better plans for occasional use, and a renewed focus on prepaid. A slowdown in mobile data adoption could spur the development of advertising-oriented business models for mobile content. Smartphone sales could also benefit, as these devices represent an increasingly viable option for consolidating multiple functions on a single multi-purpose device. And vendors who have had difficulty cracking the relative oligopoly that characterizes many segments of today's market (handsets, network equipment, billing systems) might have an unprecedented opening.

We'll know a lot more in six months.

Mark Lowenstein is Managing Director of Mobile Ecosystem. He can be reached at mlowenstein@m-ecosystem.com. Click here to subscribe to his Lens on Wireless newsletter, including the latest issue, "The iPhone Effect: Ten Hidden Themes."

Canadian spectrum auction to end soon

Sue Marek — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 10:44:29 -0400

Industry Canada's wireless spectrum auction is expected to end today, netting the government more than $4.19 billion--nearly three times the amount estimated. The auction was intended to increase competition and lower prices but in reality the three incumbent carriers--Rogers, Telus and Bell Mobility--are leading in the bidding. Rogers has bid more than $949 million for 55 licenses. Telus has bid $847.5 million for 59 licenses and Bell Mobility has bid $728.6 million for 55 licenses.

Newcomer Quebecor has bid $556 million for 18 licenses in Quebec. Globalive Communications, which owns a long-distance reseller called Yak, is close to becoming a national carrier with bids on spectrum licenses in nearly every province aside from Quebec.

For more:
- see this story

Related stories:
Canadian spectrum auction bids top $2.5B
Canadian spectrum auction begins today

FCC delays auction decision

Sue Marek — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 12:14:02 -0400

FCC Chairman Kevin Martin has decided to remove the planned discussion regarding a potential auction of 25 megahertz of unused wireless spectrum from the June 12 meeting agenda. This auction would include 25 megahertz in the 2155 MHz to 2180 MHz band and would require the winning bidder to offer free broadband service under a strict build-out schedule.

Martin says he removed the proposal from the agenda because he wanted to look into concerns raised by some wireless carriers. The CTIA yesterday criticized the FCC in a filing saying that the proposal "upends two decades of spectrum policy in favor of a specifically tailored auction designed to advance the particular business model of a single company."

The FCC's plan was similar to what M2Z Networks proposed back in 2006. The company asked the FCC for 25 megahertz of vacant spectrum in the 2155 MHz to 2175 MHz band to offer free wireless broadband service. The FCC subsequently dismissed M2Z's request. More recently, Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Calif.) introduced new legislation, known as the Wireless International Nationwide for Families Act, that would direct the FCC to auction unused spectrum, the 2155 MHz to 2180MHz band, and require the winner to offer a free wireless broadband network that reaches 95 percent of the U.S. population within 10 years.

For more:
- see this Silicon Alley Insider report
- read this IDG news service report

Related stories:
FCC mulls another spectrum auction. Read this spectrum auction story.
Will a spectrum auction requiring free broadband services work? Read this spectrum auction editorial

Canadian spectrum auction bids top $2.5B

Sue Marek — Wed, 04 Jun 2008 10:51:13 -0400

Just one week into the bidding and Industry Canada's spectrum auction is already exceeding expectations. The government agency reports that as of yesterday 20 players had bid more than $2.5 billion for the 105 megahertz of spectrum being sold. About 40 megahertz of that spectrum was earmarked for new players. Although the auction is still in its early stages it has already surpassed expectations. Analysts had expected the government would raise no more than $1.5 billion.

Bidders for the spectrum include Globalive Communications, which has bid $226.7 million; and Data & Audio-Visual Enterprises Wireless Inc., a venture between Canadian satellite radio king John Bitove and Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen. Data & Audio-Viusual has bid $174.1 million so far.

For more:
- see this report

Related story:
Canadian spectrum auctions begin today.

FCC mulls another spectrum auction

Sue Marek — Tue, 27 May 2008 11:05:36 -0400

FCC Chairman Kevin Martin has scheduled a vote on rules for another spectrum auction. This auction would include 25 megahertz in the 2155 MHz to 2180 MHz band and would require the winning bidder to offer free broadband service under a strict buildout schedule.

It's a similar plan to what M2Z Networks proposed back in 2006. The company asked the FCC for 25 megahertz of vacant spectrum in the 2155 MHz to 2175 MHz band to offer free wireless broadband service. The FCC subsequently dismissed M2Z's request. More recently, Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Calif.) introduced new legislation, known as the Wireless International Nationwide for Families Act, that would direct the FCC to auction unused spectrum, the 2155 MHz to 2180MHz band, and require the winner to offer a free wireless broadband network that reaches 95 percent of the U.S. population within 10 years.

"We've had a variety of proposals that had come into the commission originally where some people wanted us to give them the spectrum," said Martin in an RCR Wireless News article. The FCC chairman said a vote may be held at the agency's upcoming June 12 meeting, but added it is possible the measure could be approved before that date.

Martin said a licensee of the 2155-2180 MHz spectrum would have to provide a free service tier, and would have to reach 50 percent of the population in four years and 95 percent of the population by the end of the license term.

To read more about the FCC's auction plans:
- check out this article from RCR Wireless News

Related stories:
- Congresswoman proposes free wireless broadband. See this wireless broadband story
- M2Z Networks pushes broadband for the masses. See this M2Z Networks story

Qualcomm wins U.K. spectrum but coy about plans

Lynnette Luna — Mon, 19 May 2008 10:54:53 -0400

Having won the auction for the U.K.-wide L-band spectrum auction, Qualcomm has been reluctant to define what it might be used for other than to "explore emerging business models and advanced mobile technologies."

Qualcomm spent $12.9 million to win the spectrum right to the 1452 MHz to 1492 MHz band, and competing against seven other licensees, Qualcomm claims the license is suitable for offering mobile television, wireless broadband and satellite radio. The spectrum has been released on a technology and service neutral basis, leaving Qualcomm and its partners free to decide what to do next. The frequency band is also available as of now. The main bet, however, is MediaFlo as Europe is fraught with disparate mobile TV standards and Qualcomm has always been chomping at the bit to get a strong foothold in the region.

Andrew Gilbert, an executive VP of Qualcomm, said: "Acquiring this spectrum will enable us to develop, test and explore a variety of innovative wireless services and technologies that will benefit European consumers and the wireless industry as a whole. The company has a long history of innovation and creating new technology markets."

For more on this story:
-read CNNmoney

Verizon Wireless adds 1.5M customers

Mon, 28 Apr 2008 06:59:58 -0400

Verizon Wireless executives said this morning that the operator is weathering the strong economic uncertainty and fails to show any signs of weakness. The company reported that first quarter net adds were 1.5 million, bringing its total subscriber base to 67.2 million. That's down from 2 million net adds in fourth quarter 2007. Revenues totaled $11.7 billion, up 13.2 percent year over year.Ã‚Â Here's a breakdown of the other key metrics:Ã‚Â Ã‚Â

ARPU:Ã‚Â Retail ARPU was $51.40, up 1.3 percent year over year. However, this is slightly down from fourth quarter 2007 when the operator had an ARPU of $51.49.Ã‚Â Ã‚Â Ã‚Â

Data: Data ARPU was $11.94, up from $11.06 in fourth quarter 2007. Data now represents 23 percent of total service revenue up from 17.5 percent a year ago.Ã‚Â Data revenues were $2.3 billion. The company had 48.1 million retain data customers in March, accounting for 74 percent of the retail customer base. Ã‚Â

Churn: Total churn is 1.19 percent, down from 1.2 percent total churn in fourth quarter 2007.Ã‚Â Retail post-paid churn is 0.93 percent, down from 0.94 percent in fourth quarter. Ã‚Â

700 MHz spectrum: Verizon executives say that the company increased its spectrum inventory by 60 percent thanks to its wins in the 700 MHz spectrum auction.Ã‚Â Ã‚Â

Content: Verizon Wireless customers sent or received more than 58 billion text messages and 1.1 billion picture/video messages. Customers downloaded 34.6 million songs and videos.Ã‚Â Ã‚Â

For more,
- see this Verizon press release

Related stories:
Verizon Wireless adds 2M customers. Verizon earnings
Carrier Metrics: Churn, ARPU and subs for 2007. Wireless carrier metrics.

AT&T adds 1.3 mil subscribers in 1Q

Tue, 22 Apr 2008 06:59:58 -0400

AT&T reported its seventh consecutive quarter of wireless revenue growth. Revenue's from the telco's wireless business were up 18.3 percent year-over-year for a total of $11.8 billion. Here's a rundown of the largest U.S. operator's key metrics for first quarter:

ARPU: Average revenue per user was $50.18 up 2 percent from the year-ago quarter. Retail postpaid ARPU growth was up 5 percent.

Data: Data revenues were up 57.3 percent to $2.3 billion from the year-earlier quarter. Data now represents 21.5 percent of AT&T's total wireless revenues, up from 16 percent in first quarter 2007. During first quarter customers sent 620 million MMS messages and 44 billion SMS messages.

3G: 11 million customers now have 3G devices. The company's UMTS/HSDPA network is available in 272 metro areas.

700 MHz spectrum: AT&T executives said that based upon the company's purchase of the 700 MHz spectrum assets of Aloha Wireless and its winnings in the 700 MHz spectrum auction, AT&T will have contiguous and unencumbered spectrum that will cover 100 percent of the top 200 markets and 80 percent of the U.S. population.

iPhone: iPhone continues to be popular with AT&T customers. Executives said during this morning's call with investors that the average iPhone ARPUs are in the mid to upper $90 range. More than 40 percent of the customers that purchase an iPhone are new to AT&T.

Unlimited plans: Prior to debuting its $99/mo. unlimited rate plan about 1.5 percent of new customers would sign up for rate plans at $99/mo. or above. Now about 4 percent sign up for the $99/mo. rate plan.

For more, see AT&T's earnings release.

Related stories:
AT&T to layoff 1.5 percent of employees. See this AT&T report
AT&T: 95% of iPhone owners surf the mobile web. See this AT&T story
AT&T, T-Mobile match VZW on flat rate, sort of. Read this AT&T report

Is AT&T bitter about the C Block?

Wed, 16 Apr 2008 06:59:59 -0400

- Click here for our full coverage of the 700 MHz Wireless Auction -

Is AT&T bitter about the C Block?

Sound bites and dollar signs: That's what keeps our legislative branch humming along. Yesterday, the House of Representatives subcommittee on telecommunications hosted FCC chairman Kevin Martin to discuss the results of the 700 MHz spectrum auction. Three Republican representatives grilled Martin over whether Google "gamed" the system by lobbying to get the open access provisions on the C Block and then not bidding to win.

"Google was successful in gaming the system," Rep. Fred Upton (R-MI) said. The open access provisions were simply a "social engineering" experiment by the FCC that prevented the C-Block from raising billions of dollars more, Upton continued.

Google, of course, did bid on the C Block. The company bid just as it promised it would: until the provisionally winning bid on the C Block had reached its reserve price: $4.6 billion. By meeting that reserve price, Google triggered the open access provisions the company so desired. The FCC, not Google, decided on the reserve price and if it proved (in hindsight) to be too low, then the FCC is at fault for short changing Congress of the extra billions--not Google. Verizon Wireless ultimately bid to win the C Block for $4.7 billion.

Rep. Cliff Stearns (R-FL) and Rep. John Shimkus (R-IL) both followed Upton's lead. Shimkus asked Martin whether Google had "duped" the FCC by bidding in order to trigger the open access rules. Martin assured them that the agency was not duped and that the rules were not put into place to keep any company from bidding.

FCC commissioner Jonathan Adelstein noted that Google did precisely what it had promised to do: Bid enough to trigger the open access provisions. "They put over $4.6 billion of their capital at risk," Adelstein noted.

The 700 MHz auction brought in more than $19 billion, far more than the most optimistic projections of $15 billion in winning bids. The final $19 billion figure is not even counting the D Block, which did not garner enough to meet its reserve price.

So who would have swooped in and driven up the price of the C Block had it been provision-free? Most analysts figured AT&T would compete with Verizon Wireless and Google for the C Block, but the carrier acquired some spectrum from Aloha and bid on other blocks instead. So is AT&T upset about the results?

It may be worth noting that all three of the Republican representatives that grilled Martin yesterday entered office about 14 years ago. The company whose political action committee contributed most to each of their campaigns during the past 14 years? That's right: AT&T. -Brian

CTIA, carriers join NAB against white space devices

Thu, 10 Apr 2008 06:59:58 -0400

Sprint Nextel, T-Mobile USA and the CTIA have sided with the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) in the white spaces battle. Just as Google announced that it was turning its attention away from the 700 MHz spectrum auction and focusing on the FCC's white spaces tests, the CTIA and other wireless carriers have done the same to fight the Internet giant on this front as well.

Up until now, the NAB has been leading the fight against Google, Microsoft, and Philips and Motorola, who plan on creating devices that run on the unlicensed spectrum that exists between television signals. NAB claims that the white spaces are necessarily vacant to ensure nothing interferes with the television signals.

"The way we look at it is there is a model that works, and continues to work," said Paul Garnett, CTIA's assistant VP for regulatory affairs. "There is some potential there to use [white spaces] in a licensed way to allow incumbents or new entrants to provide new broadband access."

For more on the white space debate:
- read this white spaces report from the Hill

Andrew Seybold: What Was and Was Not at CTIA Wireless 2008

Andrew M. Seybold — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 10:52:17 -0400

CTIA Wireless 2008 (held last week in Las Vegas) is the largest of CTIA's two annual shows. Each year, numerous reporters flock to this show to discover what is hot and what is not, and perhaps even what was missing. This year was no exception. What was missing was meaningful dialogue about the results of the 700 MHz auctions, as Sue Marek pointed out in one of her editorials. The FCC kept the clamps on everything by not lifting the anti-collusion rule until April 3, the day the conference ended. As a result, we did not learn much about what the 700 MHz winners have planned, although on the 4th AT&T Wireless and Verizon Wireless sent out press releases saying their 700 MHz spectrum would be used for 4th-generation systems based on LTE (Long Term Evolution). But discussion about the failed D block shared public/private sector spectrum auction was not permitted, though I am sure everyone associated with it has his or her own ideas (including me, see my Commentary at www.andrewseybold.com).

Nevertheless, there was plenty of interesting things at CTIA. First, we saw handsets from UTStarcom, Samsung and others to support Leap's Cricket AWS properties that are being rolled out (the CDMA handsets support 1900 MHz as well). Meanwhile, other handset vendors including Nokia have announced GSM/UMTS phones for the T-Mobile UMTS network that will be built on the AWS spectrum. It also seems that everywhere you went, in every booth you visited where handsets were being shown, there was at least one IPK (iPhone Killer), although these devices lack the ecosystem that is so much a part of the success of the iPhone.

Location-based services are gaining in popularity and there was a lot of noise about GPS and non-GPS LBS wireless chipsets being embedded in consumer GPS devices to add instant updates and even traffic reporting services. The best traffic service I have heard of was not being demonstrated at the show, but in a press release from IntelliOne and Rogers Communications about the first commercialization of IntelliOne's Traffic-Aid system. I believe this is the gold standard of traffic reporting. IntelliOne monitors every phone on a wireless network, stripped of ESNs and phone numbers for privacy, locates the phones and, if they are on a roadway, be it a freeway, secondary or neighborhood roadway, it tracks the direction and speed of the phone. By doing this, it can update traffic every thirty seconds as long as there is wireless services from that network provider. Look for this service to be rolled out in the United States shortly.

Meanwhile, in FCC Chairman Martin's speech during the keynote address on April 1, he called for a renewed look at E911 (Enhanced 911) accuracies as reported by the network operators to the PSAPs (Public Safety Answering Points). Companies such as True Position that has been the leader in TDOA (Time Difference Of Arrival) have taken up the challenge and are combining an updated version of TDOA, GPS at each cell site and GPS in handsets to provide for a hybrid method of location that can be used for better E911 location determination and better navigation accuracy. The LBS ecosystem is gaining momentum as these new products and services come online and over the next few years we will see LBS become a mainstream application that will soon be taken for granted in our phones, just as most of us have come to expect a camera.

WiMAX was all over the floor too, partly because the WiMAX community has learned how to increase the buzz surrounding WiMAX and partly because this year and next will be "truth time" for the WiMAX community. Will it really perform as well as they say it will? Will you really get 30 KMs of coverage per cell site at 2.5 GHz? Will it become a ubiquitous contender in the mobile data (and soon voice) space? What will happen to Sprint's Xohm and Clearwire? Will they make another deal and will some cable companies join them? Is there a business model for WiMAX outside of rural areas or underdeveloped countries where there is no existing infrastructure?

There are those who believe WiMAX will be vindicated and its performance will be everything promised and more, and then there are those of us who believe it has been so over-hyped it will be a disappointment to network operators that have deployed it in good faith. The story will be told in 2008 and 2009.

One thing that was not at the show this year was a "buzz"-a new product or category that took everyone by surprise and promised to change the wireless world as we know it. Sure, there was far too much discussion of open access, and there were many developers showing some really great programs, but there was no real buzz, just an air of excitement. More spectrum (AWS) and now 700 MHz means more business for tower companies, infrastructure companies, handset makers, software developers and chip companies. So there is reason to be optimistic.

When I worked as a sales engineer for some of the leading two-way radio companies, the worst economic times were the best times for us. Why? Because communications enabled companies to do more with less, to route their trucks more effectively and eliminate the need to add trucks or people for service. Using voice communications (in those days) they were able to get more out of what they already had. This down period in our economy, coupled with new spectrum and 3G and 4G data services in addition to voice will promote more growth in our industry.

While there wasn't a real buzz at CTIA Wireless 2008, there was buzz about the new opportunities that await us all between now and next year's show.

Andrew Seybold is an authority on technology and trends shaping the world of wireless mobility. A respected analyst, consultant, commentator, author and active participant in industry trade organizations, his views have influenced strategies and shaped initiatives for telecom, mobile computing and wireless industry leaders worldwide.

P.S. Join Sue Marek, Andy and Linda Barrabee of the Yankee Group on Thursday, April 10 at 2 p.m. EST for a Webinar on "The newsmakers of CTIA." Sign up here.

BT looks into WiMAX

Wed, 09 Apr 2008 06:59:56 -0400

According to a report in the Financial Times, British Telecom's CEO designate, Ian Livingston said BT is mulling whether to invest in WiMAX. BT has considered such an investment for a few years now. Currently, BT's wireless service makes use of Vodafone's network, so a WiMAX network of their own would allow the company to better direct its wireless strategy. With the 2.6 GHz spectrum auction coming up in the U.K., all eyes are on BT to see whether it will bid to win spectrum to ultimately build a WiMAX network. BT, however, told the Financial Times that it has made no commitment to either bidding in the auction or to pursuing a WiMAX network.

For more on BT's wireless plans:
- read this article from the Financial Times

Google admits it never intended to win spectrum

Fri, 04 Apr 2008 07:59:57 -0400

Now that the 700 MHz auction winners are revealing their plans for the spectrum, Google is admitting it bid in the auction but never really intended to win the spectrum.

Instead, in a corporate blog, Google lawyers say that Google's game plan was to make sure that bidding on the C block reached the $4.6 billion reserve price that would trigger the important open access conditions. "We were also prepared to gain the nationwide C block licenses at a price somewhat higher than the reserve price; in fact, for many days during the early course of the auction, we were the high bidder. But it was clear, then and now, that Verizon Wireless ultimately was motivated to bid higher (and had far more financial incentive to gain the licenses)."

For more, see this article from TheStreet.com.

Related stories:
Is 'open network' just marketing hype? Editorial
Verizon, AT&T big winners in 700 MHz auction Article
FierceWireless' special coverage of the 700 MHz auction Coverage

Google turns attention to white spaces

Tue, 25 Mar 2008 07:59:57 -0400

Now that the 700 MHz spectrum auction is over, Google has turned its attention once again to the "white space" unlicensed spectrum debate: In a letter to the FCC, Google pressed the government to make the spectrum available for Internet services.

"As Google has pointed out previously, the vast majority of viable spectrum in this country simply goes unused, or else is grossly underutilized," Richard Whitt, Google's Washington telecom and media lawyer, wrote in the letter.

The white spaces reside between channels 2 and 51 on TVs that are not hooked up to cable, satellite or IPTV services. Whitt claimed that opening up the spectrum would "enable much-needed competition to the incumbent broadband service providers."

Whitt said Android-powered phones would be a "very nice match" for the unused spectrum but failed to elaborate.

For more on Google's white spaces plans:
- read this article in the WSJ (sub. req.)

What does public safety do now?

Mon, 24 Mar 2008 07:59:59 -0400

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What does public safety do now?

The 700 MHz auction ended last week, with Verizon and AT&T emerging as the big winners and public safety emerging as the big loser. The D Block, which was designed to offer a public/private partnership that would serve both consumers and public safety, giving them priority access during emergencies, failed to meet its $1.3-billion reserve price. Subsequently, the FCC de-linked the D Block from the rest of the auction and has plans to make the spectrum available before the DTV transition in February of next year.

The question is, will the FCC try this public/private partnership once again? If it does, it needs to make the terms more attractive for an entity willing to bid on the spectrum. A $1.3-billion reserve price is quite a risk for any company embarking on this unproven strategy. Clearly, investors see it as a risky proposition. Frontline had planned on building this nationwide, high-speed wireless network for public safety officials, but even with the backing of L. John Doerr of Kleiner Perkins Caulfield & Byers, as well as other supporters, the company raised enough for the $128 million down payment, but not enough for the $1.3 billion reserve price on the spectrum. Subsequently, Frontline closed its doors before the auction began.

If the FCC changes its terms and creates almost a spectrum give-away to the entity willing to build this public/private network, you can bet we'll see protests and legal maneuverings from the winners who bid billions to secure their spectrum. Meanwhile, public safety once again languishes, with no solution in sight to the interoperability problem that has been plaguing that industry for years. -Lynnette

700 MHz spectrum auction: That's a wrap!

Brian Dolan — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 09:56:50 -0400

After 261 rounds of bidding and more than $19.59 billion in provisionally winning bids, the 700 MHz auction (officially Auction 73) is over. Four out of the five spectrum blocks achieved their reserve prices, which enabled the auction to more than double expected revenues: the congressional estimate for the auction was $10.2 billion. During the past 15 years the FCC has conducted 68 spectrum auctions, which collectively generated $19.1 billion. Not only did the 700 MHz auction raise more money than any FCC spectrum auction before it, the latest auction managed to raise more than every other auction combined. The proceeds from the auction will be transferred to the U.S. Treasury by the end of June, and, according to the FCC, the money raised will support public safety and the digital television transition.

The four spectrum blocks that met their reserve prices were the Upper C Block, the A Block, B Block and the E Block. The winning bids for theÃ‚Â C Block were on the 12Ã‚Â regional licenses that make it up rather than the nationwide package. TheÃ‚Â 12 bids total $4.75 billion,Ã‚Â more than the C Block's reserve of $4.6 billion. Provisionally winning bids on the A, B, and E Blocks were $3.96 billion, $9.14 billion and $1.27 billion, respectively. Those three blocks collectively more than doubled their reserve price of $8.72 billion.

The D Block, of course, languished during the 700 MHz spectrum auction, with only one bid during the first round. Because the bid was well under the block's $1.3 billion reserve price. In a statement yesterday, FCC Chairman Kevin Martin said that "the FCC is now evaluating its options for this spectrum" and that "the Commission remains committed to ensuring that we work to solve public safety's interoperability challenges." No word yet on whether the FCC will start Auction 76, the Plan B auction which was to take place after Auction 73 in the case that a spectrum block failed to meet its reserve price. The FCC will have to decide which rules if any it would remove from the D Block and/or what it's new reserve price should be.

The FCC will announce the winning bidders in the coming weeks.

Defining success for the 700 MHz auction

Wed, 19 Mar 2008 07:59:59 -0400

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Defining success for the 700 MHz auction

After 54 days and 261 rounds of bidding the usual pomp and circumstance that surrounds spectrum auctions understandably dies down, but now that the bidding is over in the 700 MHz auction the industry will once again turn its attention to what could be a watershed moment for the wireless industry.

Could be, but, probably won't be. Analysts seemed to have reached a consensus that either Verizon Wireless or AT&T has won the coveted C Block of spectrum, which is laden with open access provisions that Google lobbied the FCC to implement. Bloggers on-site at the Verizon Wireless Open Development Conference today claim that the carriers' onstage presenters hinted that it had won the C Block through well-timed smirks and subtle chit-chat. The speculation, of course, is more fodder for the rumor mill, but the time for speculation is almost over. The FCC is expected to announce the winners of the auction within the next couple weeks.

The FCC, the incumbent carriers and Congress will certainly see the 700 MHz auction as a smashing success for all parties. The FCC managed to raise more money than expected--doubling reserve prices in some cases--even though it implemented special rules on some of the spectrum blocks. The incumbent carriers are largely rumored and favored to have won the critical spectrum blocks. Congress, of course, is happy that the FCC raised close to $20 billion to fill its coffers.

But if the 700 MHz auction did not attract a new entrant--like a Google--was it really a success? Perhaps even more concerning, the FCC's auction failed to raise the $1.3 billion reserve price for the D Block of spectrum, which was set aside for a public-private network that would solve public safety interoperability problems nationwide.

Twice the money but two key goals may not have been accomplished. So will the 700 MHz auction be remembered as a smashing success or an epic failure? Chances are: a little from column A and a little from column B. What do you think? -Brian