Articles by Joe Madden
LTE operators have a major problem. ARPU is dropping, but data consumption continues to grow. The big LTE operators are forced to give bigger data bundles for lower prices. This will not end well. Wi-Fi operators also have a major problem. They're spending more money on equipment than they collect in Wi-Fi service revenues. Frankly, that's unsustainable without some way to create revenue from the Wi-Fi network. The basic problem: Nobody pays for Wi-Fi anymore.
Recent field trials have shown important results for CoMP and eICIC. Mobile Experts has been tracking these technologies for years, and frankly, I was getting tired of hearing about the theoretical gains of CoMP or simulated results. Recently in Japan, Softbank and Airspan conducted a trial, and they've recently released some hard data on how these features work. This was a solid field trial, testing performance under heavily loaded conditions and testing of multiple scenarios.
We found that a major American city reaches "Super Bowl" levels of data traffic between 2 and 3 years after its benchmark sporting event. New York City has recently reached 2013 Super Bowl levels of traffic density in its hotspots. We can expect San Francisco to reach the level of the 2015 Super Bowl in about 2017.
A forecast was recently published, predicting "100 million 5G subscribers by 2025." Give me a break. Come on people, 5G is not defined yet. We don't know what the use cases are. We don't know what kind of terminals will be used. We don't know if "subscribers" is a relevant metric for 5G. We don't have any standards for new technology, with only the first study items underway now.
If you're reading this, then you work in the most disrupted market in the history of the world. The mobile telecom market contends with multiple technologies, each disrupting the other simultaneously. Small Cells? Yes. Wi-Fi? Yes. DAS? Yes. Cloud RAN? Yes.
Remember the early days of Wi-Fi? It's easy to forget that Wi-Fi technology went through a period of very slow growth, where proprietary systems did not interoperate well and many companies exited the market due to poor ROI. The Small Cell market reminds me of the 1980's and 1990's unlicensed market, and there are lessons to be learned from Wi-Fi history in today's ecosystem development.
Every time a new "G" comes around, the engineers try to define what it means in terms of technology. This worked fairly well for 2G, 3G, and 4G, where each generation involved a new way of scrambling the bits for highest spectral efficiency.
For the past five years, Mobile Experts has been the most conservative analyst firm in the femtocell and small cell market. That's why we were selected to track the market on behalf of the Small Cell Forum. We've predicted flat numbers for femtocells (nailed that one) and we've predicted steady growth in carrier-deployed small cells, which has been accurate through the end of 2013.
Recently I saw a comment from one of the major base station OEMs, saying that "Small cells are not cheaper than macro base stations." Hogwash. Look into the true costs of adding capacity to the network. Comparing LTE macro and indoor small cells, significant cost differences emerge:
During the past 18 months, a few Asian operators have deployed significant numbers of small cells. On the other side of the world, mobile operators are experimenting and deploying only small numbers of small cells. There are millions of LTE subscribers in North America, so why don't we have millions of small cells in the United States today? The difference comes down to density. LTE doesn't drive a need for small cells all by itself, and the sheer weight of data traffic does not require small cells.