Crittercism: iOS 9 adoption will be at least three days faster than iOS 8

iOS 9 will likely be three days faster in attracting half of all Apple device users to upgrade compared with previous versions, according to Crittericism. The mobile app performance testing firm created a forecast for the platform's adoption based on more than 26 billion app loads. 

  • iOS 9.0 release's current crash rate of 2.77 percent is only 14.46 percent greater than last two versions, whereas iOS 8.0 had a crash rate of 3.48 percent during the equivalent time period.
  • Crittercism expects to see a 31 percent adoption rate for iOS 9 over a one-week period, while iOS 8 saw a 35 percent adoption by the end of its first week.
  • Crittercism expects a 50 percent adoption rate by day 25.
  • iOS 9 will only take four days to accomplish what has taken Lollilop 11 months -- getting more than 20 percent of users to upgrade.

"Every major iOS release, iOS 9 included, introduces great new capabilities; however, most developers are just focused on stability and compatibility updates in the short term," Crittercism said. "Apple takes the same approach as these developers, with a focused effort on identifying issues impacting user experience in the first weeks following the release. Depending on the severity of those issues, this may be slightly amplified since we do expect iOS 9 adoption to be faster than iOS 8."

After untold numbers of bugs in the past, iPhone and iPad users may be understandably reluctant to upgrade initially, but Crittercism's forecast suggests developers shouldn't waste any time in readying their apps for the latest version of the platform. If adoption happens at an accelerated pace, it may simply be a case of ensuring that thorough testing is done before and after apps and mobile games are released into production -- particularly if they are taking advantage of new capabilities such as the 3D Touch for iPhone 6S, which we recently profiled in FierceDeveloper. In general, all signs point to iOS 9 being a hit for consumers and developers alike, as long as they go into the upgrade process knowing things might be less than perfect. 

For more:
- see the complete forecast here

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