By Ian Channing, guest editor
It is doubtful if any wireless technology (with the possible exception of 3G)
has been as hyped as much as WiMAX. From the outset the technology's proponents
trumpeted its advantages in terms of coverage and data speed over other wireless
broadband solutions. Cooler heads subsequently prevailed and many of the
overblown claims of the early years have been significantly modified. So what
are the real prospects for WiMAX in a straight fight with other wireless
solutions?
Certainly WiMAX is enjoying some success. In this issue we
reported that the prospects for the technology in Russia look excellent and a
Bulgarian operator is deploying a new WiMAX network provided by Huawei. There
are also WiMAX networks being deployed in France, the U.K. and the Baltic
States. But closer examination of these stories reveals that in the majority of
cases WiMAX is being used to provide broadband services to users in areas where
cable and fibre are not economically viable options. There is no doubt that in
its role as 'Wireless DSL' WiMAX can provide an excellent and cost effective
delivery mechanism for broadband services. What is in doubt is whether it can
ever be a mobile broadband service that competes directly with existing services
such as 3G.
The analyst community is divided on the future of WiMAX.
Juniper Research, in a recent report, forecast that mobile WiMAX 802.16e would
begin to take off over the 2010 to 2013 period, exceeding 80 million mobile
subscribers globally by 2013. The Yankee Group is more cautious. Although the
analyst group expects several large-scale national WiMAX deployments in the
current year, it is forecasting just 37 million subscribers globally by 2011.
There is a general agreement that for mobile WiMAX to take off vendors
will have to produce the right kind of devices at the right price points and
WiMAX operators will have to find a way of differentiating their offerings from
their cellular rivals. What is key, and what the WiMAX industry is watching
keenly, is the progress of Sprint's planned WiMAX service, called Xohm. Due to
launch this year the success or otherwise of the Sprint service will probably
decide the future development of the WiMAX market.
What is certain is
that WiMAX is not going to go away. Apart from anything else it has been
designated an official member of the IMT2000 family by the International
Telecommunications Union and is up there with technologies such as 3G Long Term
Evolution. However, it has a hard row to hoe. Within the next two years the
global 2G/3G subscriber base will hit three billion and will generate untold
billions of dollars. Research firm Maravedis reckons the global WiMAX subscriber
base at the end of Q3 2007 was 1,369,000 who collectively generated US$668
million for the first three quarters of that year. It's the numbers game
stupid!