Western European operators should not expect a speedy post-recession recovery, Analysys Mason has warned.
End-user spending shrank 4.4% in 2009, and will continue to decline at a CAGR of -1.8% until 2012, the research firm said.
While there are some areas for growth - including modem-based mobile broadband, which will grow at a 33% CAGR over the same period – these will not be enough to offset declines in core revenue-generating services.
Margin for loyalty trade-offs, margin for volume trade-offs, SIM-only contracts: all these strategies have fundamentally altered consumer perceptions of value and pricing,” Analysys Mason principal analyst Rupert Wood said.
“As a consequence, operators will find it more difficult to maintain price premiums and harvest additional spend on new services.”
Even the projected 11% CAGR for handset non-messaging data will be hampered by increasingly rigid consumer perceptions of what mobile contracts should cost, he added.
Fixed broadband has some room to grow at 4% CAGR, but operators will have a hard slog ahead convincing consumers of the need to upgrade to pricier high-speed services.