Reviving the fixed line: Part III

This eighth edition of the annual Exane BNP Paribas-Arthur D. Little joint report on telecom operators focuses on the move by operators into content. It drew three principal conclusions. Here is the analysis of the third: the huge differences in European markets and what strategies operators can use to address them, including TV.

Will European markets become as penetrated and as profitable as the US triple-play market, with triple-play revenue per household of more than €70 per month versus €50 currently in Europe‾ Or, will the move of the market to triple-play lead to deteriorating revenue trends for some incumbents‾

Opportunities and risks are very different in each country - the growth potential in pay-TV and the competitive landscapes are varied and can change in many ways including through new entrants and consolidation.

The countries where opportunities strongly outweigh risks for incumbents over the long term are, in our view, Portugal, Austria and Italy; on the other hand, we see below average upside for incumbents in Belgium, Germany and the UK.

Source: Arthur D. Little, Exane BNP Paribas estimates

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