Mobile voice is set to fuel a steady rise in retail telecom revenues in sub-Saharan Africa through 2016, with overall sales set to grow at a CAGR of 10%, Analysys Mason predicts.
The research firm forecasts overall revenues in the region will hit $69 billion (€52.4 billion) in 2016, up from $40 billion in 2010. Income from mobile voice services will grow at a CAGR of 9%, despite pressure from growing availability of mobile data services as 3G network rollouts accelerate.
Penetration of 3G networks is tipped to grow from 3% of the population in 2010 to 20% by 2016. In contrast, the firm expects limited impact from 4G services, noting the evolution will only just be starting in South Africa and Kenya by the end of the forecast period.
Roz Roseboro, co-author of Analysys Mason’s forecast report, says South Africa is the only market in the region where mobile voice isn’t the dominant service today. She predicts the trend towards mobile will result in a 6% decline in fixed-line voice income each year through 2016.