After expanding at 7% in 2011, we expect the global telecom services market to grow at a more modest 4% in 2012 as a result of the rising volatility and uncertainty facing the global economy. We expect total service revenue to reach $1.7 trillion - 2.4% of global GDP - in 2012.
Mobile broadband, enabled by the proliferation of high-speed mobile computing devices including smartphones and tablets, will be one of the largest growth areas in 2012. Particularly as the price of these computing devices comes down, enabling further penetration in emerging markets.
We expect to see emerging market players continue to move up in the global rankings, with developed market players losing ground. America Móvil, currently number three on the list of top global service providers, will continue to close the gap with second-ranked player Vodafone.
Further, we expect operators such as Airtel and MTN to make additional gains, while operators such as Deutsche Telekom risk falling off the list in the wake of further entrenchment. In a demand-challenged environment, operators’ exposure to high-growth markets continues to be a key strategic advantage.
Other trends include :
- Mobile subscriptions will pass the 6bn mark in February, with the 3 billion mark being passed in Asia-Pacific in January.
- India will surpass China to become the world’s largest mobile market in terms of subscriptions.
- Wimax will see the beginning of its end in Asia. Operators will favor LTE instead.
- Broadband penetration of population will pass the 10% mark globally. This milestone creates opportunities to provide consumers with information, entertainment and value-added services.
- The M2M opportunity will take higher priority on operator agendas. Investment and innovation will follow.
- A cloud computing strategy, the high-growth of the IT service market and a clear value proposition for the enterprise market will become central to operators’ growth profile.
- IPTV penetration of population will pass the 1% mark globally.
- The installed base of PCs will pass 2 billion.
- The mobile handset market will surpass the $200 billion mark.
For the full version of Pyramid Research’s perspective on 2012 trends, visit www.pyr.com