Generally speaking, millimeter wave (mmWave) technology has progressed at a faster pace than expected relative to projections that were outlined back in 2017, according to Dell’Oro Group.
“Very few people expected mmWave phones delivering Gbps speeds in a compelling form factor on a network with more than 0.1 M radios would be a reality in just a few years,” Dell’Oro Group analyst Stefan Pongratz told Fierce via email.
After two years of “exponential growth,” mmWave revenues increased 15% to 20% in 2021, which led 5G NR mmWave to account for 1% to 2% of total sub-6 GHz plus mmWave radio access network (RAN) revenues, according to Dell’Oro Group.
Ericsson leads the way in the mmWave RAN market, Pongratz wrote in a recent blog.
Of course, mmWave can’t beat the propagation characteristics of mid-band for 5G. Verizon spent more than $45 billion on C-band spectrum last year, and it’s deploying gear at 3.7 GHz to reach about 175 million PoPs with it by the end of this year. That's in addition to the spectrum it's using at mmWave frequencies for 5G.
Pongratz said the mmWave economics for both fixed and mobile applications remain unfavorable relative to the sub-6 GHz spectrum for broader deployments.
However, “we still believe the technology will play a pivotal role in the long-term capacity roadmap,” he said. “The cost per GB delta between the sub-6 GHz spectrum and mmWave will gradually narrow as the non-RAN equipment cost of small cell sites decline, repeater solutions improve, and the sub-6 GHz spectrum is exhausted.”
And even though operators like UScellular are using millimeter wave to support fixed wireless access (FWA) offerings in less populated areas, the density required to support incremental sites, taken together with the mmWave range limitations, will impact the business case, especially in less dense areas, according to Pongratz.
Recently, Dell’Oro Group said the 5G capex cycle will be longer than past generations of wireless, including LTE. The reason for 5G’s longer cycle is largely tied to all the different spectrum bands that are being used for 5G from mmWave to 2.5 GHz, C-band, 6 GHz and more.